In 1967, the riots and rebellion in Watts, Newark, and Detroit were among the most destructive and violent riots in the history of America. The bloodshed, burning, and looting continued for five days resulting in the death of 50 people, 400 injured more than 1500 buildings were burned, and 7,000+ US National Guard and Army troops were called into service.
America is going through a similar situation with an extra pandemic crisis. As the 2020 presidential elections are approaching, now the question arises “who is getting political benefits out of the violent protests”?
President Trump is using the same methodology which Richard Nixon used as a “silent majority” and later Ronald Reagan successfully invoked the idea of “the jungle is always there, waiting to take us over”. Both presidents, Nixon and Reagan excelled themselves politically in the wake of violent protests in the 1960s. President Trump is playing the same game but with different cards.
“You have to dominate, or you’ll look like a bunch of jerks. You have to arrest and try people,” and “I am your president of law and order” are the authoritarian reaction from Trump that is uniting his support base mostly Caucasian/white Americans. Trump’s hiding in the bunker, walking to church then waving the bible and calling military units to “save the nation” are compelling reasons to enrage and energize the knowledge class, white liberals, and the young to more tightly ally with the ideology of Trump.
According to the statistics, in the 1968 presidential elections, violent protests caused up to an 8% shift among whites toward Republicans and tipped the election. On June 1, a survey was conducted by Morning Consult shows that Trump has 41% approval for handling the pandemic. Similarly, the RealClearPolitics survey shows that Trump is 51% favorable related to economic betterment.
What Democrats, the opposition party of Trump, fear most is a repetition of the voter reaction to urban rioting in the 1960s that brought an end to decades of Democratic hegemony at every level of government, as Republicans were able to set much of the federal, state and local agenda for the next 52 years.
If there were no violent protests then, Hubert Humphrey would have won an additional 800,000 votes nationally. The swing states (Ohio, New Jersey, Missouri, Illinois, and Delaware) would have provided him with an additional 84 electoral votes to enable his victory.
As a matter of fact, the current situation not only raises Democratic concerns over a repetition of 1968, but also a repetition of 2016.
President Trump has started using the same terms which he used during the 2016 elections. In almost every speech or public interaction, he is using “criminal”, “Illegal”, “terrorists”, “law and order” which is clearly helping him to invoke racial attitude among conservatives.
44% of black Americans said during the pandemic they experienced job loss as compared to the 38% of white Americans
In the context of three simultaneous crises – the pandemic, the economy, and nationwide protests over police brutality toward African-Americans – Trump’s attempts to assert his role as the hard-nosed embodiment of law-and-order have been undermined by the public’s harsh assessment of his leadership role during the pandemic.
In a civilized society like America, the common reaction to the violence, especially when it is associated with the racial element, goes against the rioting group. It means Trump and his followers are getting more social and political support than ever before.
According to FactTank’s report, 44% of black Americans said during the pandemic they experienced job loss as compared to the 38% of white Americans. Similarly, 73% of the black community said they did not have an emergency fund and 47% of the white community said the same.
There is another angle to which I want to bring my reader’s attention. Now, America has over 40 million individuals without jobs and according to the University of Chicago’s business school’s estimates, more than 45% will lose their job permanently. If this hardship continues for the next seven five? months, the traditional economic factor will take precedence which will put Trump in a tough spot.
In my opinion, we still have five months before the presidential election which is a long way off, and it is very possible that these violent protests will become a distant memory by then. A new wave of coronavirus outbreak or rising economic crisis, healthcare reforms, or other traditional American political talking points might become relevant as the election nears. As the situation is rapidly changing every day, there may be a desire among many to put the country in the hands of an experienced professional politician like Joe Biden. As we analyze the history and current situation, what makes the current situation unique is that the combination of widespread racial discontent, the pandemic, and economic implosion is taking place all at the same time when the scope of deprivation and need is extraordinary. This condition is giving a leading edge to President Trump who is ensuring his supporters that he is fighting on all fronts as they expect him to do. Martin Luther King Jr. became more politically radical in his last years, but his opposition to rioting was a constant. “Every time a riot develops,” he warned just months before his death, “it helps George Wallace.”
The writer is a technology expert who is working with US government based in Washington DC