The Coronavirus pandemic first appeared in the Wuhan province of China in December 2019 and by now it has spread to 179 countries of the world. While China seems to have successfully fought the virus through strict lockdown of the affected areas, currently the worst affected countriesare Italy, France, the UK, Spain, Germany, the US, Iran, and South Korea, although in other affected countries the virus is spreading. The main symptoms indicating the presence of the virus in a person are coughing, high fever and difficulty in breathing.The presence of the virus in a human being is confirmed through a test.
So far, there is no cure available for the virus, except isolating the confirmed patients and suspects and ensuring that healthy people do not come into contact with them.As the death rate of the affected people is 2 to 3 percent, the people should not panic and should concentrate on the preventive measures. These are; wearing the mask, often washing hands with soap for 20 seconds, not shaking hands with others, social distancing by avoiding meetings/ gatherings, and keeping distance from the people suffering from cough, sneezing and bad throat.
To avoid the spread of the virus, the governments of the affected countries are enforcing lockdown and curfew in the affected areas/cities, where educational and other institutions and shopping malls have been closed, social gatherings banned, and travelling restrictions imposed. Thepeople travelling by air or via road from other countries are being screened and quarantined. Some countries have even banned the international flights to land. The attendance in offices has been reduced, and the people are being told to remain in their homes.
Apart from the businesses and the people even the government might require financial support to meet its budgetary shortfalls and payment of foreign debt
While the above mentioned measures will help in controlling the disease by isolating the confirmed cases and the suspects, these measures are also likely to cause major economic losses, due to much reduced economic activity because of the closure of the industries,businesses, the loss of jobs, restricted movement and shopping,and the loss of production and suppliesfor the people. Some businesses and industries might be closed permanently, and a lot of people mightlose their jobs. The daily wagers will also lose their daily incomes.
This whole process will also lead to reduced economic growth and hence governments’ revenues for theirrecurring expenditures and development budgets will also suffer.Some expatriate workers are also likely to lose their jobs and foreign remittances of third world countries will reduce. The international trade will also suffer and due to these losses the limited foreign exchange reserves of the third world countries, like Pakistan will come under severe strain
According to the Reuters dated 16 March 2020, to fight the virus and cater for the above losses, to save their industry and major businesses from a permanent closure, and to support the unemployed people during the lockdown period, major economies of the developed world have announced big amounts of funds out of their heavy federal reserves as a supportive measure.
However, for the developing countries, like Pakistan with limited foreign exchange reserves, and foreign debt liabilities, it will not be possible to support the businesses at a loss and the poor households losing their incomes if a total lockdown is carried out. Therefore, the Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan announcedthat Pakistan cannot afford to order a total lockdown that would damage industry, businesses and household to a level where the provision of the financial support to them will become necessary.
But,the PM’s announced policy of partial lock down to end the virus and also save the economy, major industry/businesses and the labourfrom the losses,can only succeedif the people of Pakistan display self discipline to strictly follow the above suggested preventive measures. Only then it will be possible to combat the virus and the government will also be able to provide a reasonable support to the industry and businesses, who will suffer limited losses. Of course the government will also expect the cooperation of the rich people, to support the jobless and poor families in this crisis situation.
Conversely, if the people do not display the correct spirit and cooperation to implement the preventive measures and the virus continues to spread, the government will have to order a total lockdown, which would definitely harm the economy, industry, businesses and labour class due to the major loss of the economic activity. In that case, apart from the businesses and the people even the government might require financial support to meet its budgetary shortfalls and payment of foreign debt.
To cope up with this situation, the government should make timely efforts to ask the concerned foreign governments and institutions for the deferment of the loan payment and advocate for the financial assistance/soft loans from the ADB, the World Bank and rich countries to fight the virus and meet the losses to the big businesses and the economy.Tosupport the small businesses, the poor and the jobless people,apart from the government support, the rich people should also make major contributions.
The writer is a former Senior Consultant and Research Fellow of Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), Islamabad