General Khalifa Haftar’s ongoing offensive against the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord is not going very well even after a couple of months of intense fighting. Haftar’s forces have failed to breach the southern defences of the city. That is mainly because the militias allied with the GNA are fighting in their backyard, and do not have long supply lines to protect, freeing their forces to move quickly as and when necessary. On the contrary, the Libya National Army has major problems with its supply lines, which stretch across hundreds of kilometres of desert to its base of operations near Benghazi.
Despite that, General Khalifa Haftar is still the most dominant player on the Libyan political landscape, and controls, according to some estimates, 70 to 80 per cent of Libya. The general’s forces have both strengthened their footing in their stronghold in Cyrenaica in eastern Libya and slowly advanced towards western Libya into critical terrain since May 2017. Moreover, the recent push in southern region of Fezzan has left Haftar in control of most border crossings and many key oil installations, including the large oil fields in the Murzuk basin.
The veteran general clearly understands the dynamics of power in Libya, based on region, city, tribe, political factions, ethnicity, and militia membership. That’s why Haftar has ensured that he gets support from major tribes like Magharba, Baraasa, Hasa, Obaidat, and to some extent, Zintan, which has the most powerful tribal militia called Zintani brigades. Last year, Haftar established contact with western Libyan tribes, Warfalla and Tarhouna, as well.
Speaking of foreign backing, the general also looks strong there even as the Tripoli-based government has international recognition, Haftar has the backing of Egypt, France, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. Rumours are in circulation that the Wagner Group, the main private military group used by Russia, are present in the LNA forces. The United States president, Donald Trump, spoke by telephone with General Haftar recently and recognised his significant role in fighting terrorism and securing Libya’s oil resources. That has definitely boosted morale of Haftar and his forces. Hence, the general has carefully taken care of internal and international dynamics and ensured that it works in his favour.
To ensure long-term stability of Libya, regional and international backers of Haftar should convince him to play a constructive and stabilising political role
In terms of military strength too, Haftar looks good. The General’s Libyan National Army is the strongest force in Libya in terms of both men and material. The LNA consists of a nationalist coalition of military units, local and tribal militias, Salafi fighters and Sudanese mercenaries, particularly from the Darfuri rebel groups. The LNA currently controls the populated areas of eastern Libya, the oil crescent region and strategic military sites in the southwest, which has boosted the role of General Haftar as a game changer in Libyan politics.
Haftar’s forces are also unique in Libya in that they include a small functional air force. Because of a large numbers of trained ex-Gaddafi air force personnel who joined his cause, Haftar has almost complete air superiority. He’s used this to launching air raids on Tripoli, Misrata and the western mountains, as well as in close-air-support missions in Benghazi and Derna. His jets have targeted civilian infrastructure, such as Tripoli’s Mitiga Airport, the capital’s only functioning air terminal since forces allied to the Libya Dawn destroyed the Tripoli International Airport last year.
Kalifa Haftar is also hoping to capitalise on the increasing discontent among the civilian population in western Libya. The situation inside Tripoli has been steadily deteriorating. Crime, insecurity and corruption have been on the rise, while living conditions have markedly worsened as the local economy has struggled and the provision of social and health services has nearly collapsed. The capital is divided between various militias with different vested interests, and the GNA is itself weak and corrupt to control them. Haftar has tried to project himself as a military strongman who could unite the country and bring back stability and order. This image as Libya’s saviour has been promoted by a massive propaganda programme propagated by his backers. A significant number of Libyans now see him as the only person who can bring some form of order in their lawless and chaotic country.
A united Libya is now unimaginable without General Haftar’s support. He is too powerful to be ignored. To ensure long-term stability, his regional and international backers should convince him to play a constructive and stabilising political role and not rely solely on military means. A comprehensive political settlement that includes participation of all Libyan political parties and important forces on the ground in any potential settlement is the only way forward for Libya. Haftar has also to be engaged heavily to play his significant role for any future political solution. He should be offered a major role to play in any future arrangement.
The writer is a columnist for Middle-East and Af-Pak region