In the post cold war scenario, the US wanted to contain China’s peaceful rise, as the US had thought that an economically advanced China would challenge its superpower status.
This policy was adopted despite the fact that China had never displayed any desire to challenge the US’ position as a superpower. To contain China’s rise, the US chose India as its strategic and major defence partner, as part of its newly envisaged Indo-Pacific policy.
As a result, Pakistan’s strategic value in the eyes of the US has diminished after embracing India. However, the US strategic thinkers failed to realise Pakistan’s strategic importance in fighting the menace of terrorism in this region and for maintaining peace, and stability in the Muslim world, especially in the Middle East. The US decision makers have also failed to realise that India will never follow the US to contain China; its only aim is to get the US political-economic and military assistance to become a major world power and attain a permanent seat on the UNSC.
Due to this scenario, the US relations with Pakistan are on the decline. Since 2007, the US has blamed Pakistan for not doing enough in the war on terror, and has repeatedly asked it to do more. Despite this, Pakistan has completely eliminated the terrorists’ hideouts in border areas with Afghanistan by sacrificing above 70,000 human lives and suffering economic losses of above US $ 107 billion.
US has declined to sell the promised F-16s to Pakistan and has suspended about $2 billion in security aid. US favours India’s military influence in Afghanistan to the detriment of Pakistan, and does not stop India from using Afghan soil to destabilise Balochistan.
Moreover, the US recently warned that any potential IMF bailout for Pakistan’s new government should not be provided funds to pay off the Chinese lenders. It has stopped Pakistani military officers from training in the US. It is still asking Pakistan to end the alleged sanctuaries of the Afghan Taliban. The recent meetings of the US secretary of the State and Pakistan’s Foreign Minister without any outcome indicate no hope for any quick improvement in relations.
The military balance in South Asia is tilting towards India as well, because it is able to purchase the latest defence technology/weapons and nuclear materials from the US and its other allies. Since this situation adds to Pakistan’s threat perception, to boost its defence capabilities, it needs alternative advanced defence markets, in addition to its strategic partnership with China.
Hence, advancing Pakistan’s relations with Russia is very important, especially when. Russia is also well poised to develop its relations with Pakistan; due to the country’s performance in the war on terror, its positive contributions towards regional stability, and its strategic value to deal with the impending threat of the Afghan based IS-K/Daesh. Moreover, high level mutual visits have been conducted since 2006, by both the countries and also an agreement was signed in 2014, to boost bilateral relations.
Since 2014, Russia has started supporting Pakistan’s stance on ending the Afghan conflict through intra Afghan dialogue which includes the Taliban. In October 2015, Russia signed a $2 billion gas pipeline deal with Pakistan. In June 2016, along with China, Russia also supported Pakistan to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
Since 2014, Russia has started supporting Pakistan’s stance on ending the Afghan conflict through intra Afghan dialogue which includes the Taliban. In October 2015, Russia signed a $2 billion gas pipeline deal with Pakistan. In June 2016, along with China, Russia also supported Pakistan to become a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Also, Moscow sold Islamabad four Mi-35 combat helicopters, and the two countries also held counter-terror military drills, as well as an anti-drugs operation in the Arabian Sea. A Pakistani warship participated in the Russian Navy Day parade as well, which was taken by President Putin. In September 2018, Pakistan and Russia signed a $10-billion offshore gas pipeline deal an another agreement was signed for the training of Pakistani troops in Russia.
In view of the above scenario, while endeavouring to revive good working relations with the US, and further deepening Pakistan-China strategic partnership, it is also necessary that Pakistan focus on advancing its relations with Russia, in all fields. Russia can reinforce China’s ongoing support for uplifting Pakistan’s economy and its defence capabilities, it will also be able to provide a limited quantity of advanced weapons like helicopters, aircraft, air defence systems and naval vessels, disregarding India’s objections.
Furthermore, Pakistan should focus on its CPEC supported economic development to become a self reliant country.
The writer is an ex-Army Colonel, a former Research Fellow of IPRI, and Senior Research Fellow, SVI, Islamabad
Published in Daily Times, October 11th 2018.