The ongoing Iran-related conflict and rising global oil prices are reshaping summer holiday plans across Europe and beyond, with travellers increasingly opting for flexible and closer-to-home alternatives. Tourists and industry experts say uncertainty in global travel routes, higher airfares and fears of cancellations are pushing people to rethink long-haul vacations and adopt “plan B” strategies focused on shorter, more affordable trips.
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Greg Abbott, a UK-based Australian planning a summer break, said he is now prioritising short-haul European travel and train journeys due to soaring costs and instability in flight routes. He noted that many travellers are avoiding long-distance flights and choosing flexible bookings instead.
Industry observers say the travel sector is being hit by a combination of $100-per-barrel oil prices, rising jet fuel costs and disruptions linked to Middle East tensions. These factors are increasing operational expenses for airlines and pushing ticket prices higher.
Airlines across Europe, including major carriers such as Air France-KLM, Lufthansa and British Airways’ parent company IAG, have warned of significant increases in fuel costs this year. Low-cost carriers are also feeling pressure as margins tighten and demand patterns shift.
Tour operators report that while overall demand remains stable, booking behaviour has changed significantly. Many travellers are now making last-minute decisions, often just days before departure, and opting for shorter trips within Europe.
Popular destinations such as Spain, Greece and Portugal are emerging as “safe-haven” choices due to their stability, connectivity and proximity to key markets. At the same time, domestic tourism and road trips are gaining popularity as cost-conscious alternatives.
Rail travel is also seeing a noticeable rise, with operators reporting increased bookings for routes such as Eurostar between the UK and mainland Europe. Business travel is similarly shifting toward trains where possible.
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Despite the uncertainty, industry experts say people are not abandoning travel altogether but instead adjusting destinations, timing and transport choices.
However, analysts warn that continued geopolitical instability and high fuel prices could further strain airlines and reshape global tourism trends throughout the peak summer season.