WASHINGTON: Recent US intelligence assessments suggest that Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near future, as it continues to use its strategic position over the vital waterway as leverage against the United States.
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According to sources familiar with the reports, Tehran views its control over the strait — which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil trade — as its most effective tool to pressure Washington. By keeping maritime traffic restricted, Iran has contributed to rising global energy prices, adding economic and political pressure on US President Donald Trump amid an ongoing conflict that has stretched nearly five weeks.
Recent #US intelligence reports warn that Iran is unlikely to open the #StraitOfHormuz any time soon because its grip on the world’s most vital oil artery provides the only real leverage it has over the #UnitedStates…
🔗https://t.co/bQZKPDi4Z8#IranWar #WorldNews pic.twitter.com/ILVj8I4A8X
— The Daily Star (@dailystarnews) April 4, 2026
The reports indicate that rather than weakening Iran’s influence, the conflict may have reinforced its regional standing by demonstrating its capacity to disrupt a critical global supply route. Iranian forces, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have employed tactics such as targeting commercial vessels, deploying naval mines, and imposing transit fees, making passage through the strait increasingly risky.
While Trump has publicly suggested that US forces could reopen the waterway, experts warn that any military attempt would be complex and costly. The strait’s narrow shipping lanes make vessels highly vulnerable to drone and missile attacks, even if US forces gain temporary control of surrounding areas.
Analysts also caution that Iran is unlikely to relinquish this leverage after the conflict ends. Maintaining influence over the strait could provide Tehran with long-term strategic benefits, including economic gains through transit fees and stronger negotiating power in any future agreements.
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With global energy markets already under strain, the situation underscores the growing difficulty of reaching a resolution that ensures both stability and security in the region.