Oil soared above $100 and stocks sank Thursday as Iran’s fresh attempts to hit supplies in the Middle East and threats to bring down the global economy overshadowed a record release of strategic crude by the International Energy Agency.
The IEA said Wednesday that its members had agreed to unlock 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves — their largest release ever. But the move was unable to overcome fears about the choking of energy supplies from the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz — through which a fifth of global crude passes — effectively shut down. As Iran steps up attempts to disrupt supplies across the region, two tankers in Iraqi waters were reported struck Thursday. Baghdad had already said it was cutting output because of the crisis, with Kuwait and kingpin Saudi Arabia following suit.
Also Thursday, Bahrain reported Iran had carried out an attack on fuel tanks in the country, while Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted drones headed to Shaybah oil field and drones struck fuel tanks at Oman’s Salalah port, where operations were subsequently suspended.
And the UK maritime agency said in an alert Thursday that a container ship near the United Arab Emirates was hit by an “unknown projectile”.
Brent jumped to a high of $101.59 per barrel, while WTI spiked at just short of $96. The two had rocketed as much as 30 percent Monday to a peak of nearly $120.
They both pared the gains but with hostilities showing no sign of ending, analysts warned $90-$100 a barrel could be the new normal for a while. Iran said it was ready for a long war of attrition that would “destroy” the world economy, threatening any vessels from the United States or its allies.
The Revolutionary Guards threatened Wednesday to strike “economic centres and banks” linked to US and Israeli interests.
The two “must consider the possibility that they will be engaged in a long-term war of attrition that will destroy the entire American economy and the world economy”, Ali Fadavi, an adviser to the Guards’ commander-in-chief, told state television.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency also published a list of potential tech targets, including the offices of Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Nvidia in Gulf countries and Israel.
Analysts warn a prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — which also carries roughly a third of the fertiliser used in global food production — would deliver a severe economic shock, particularly in Asia and Europe. Among those badly hit are airlines, with many having to rethink flights through the Middle East, while the rising cost of fuel hits their bottom line.
Air New Zealand said Thursday it would cut 1,100 flights over the next two months, while Hong Kong carrier Cathay Pacific unveiled new fuel surcharges for most routes that are roughly double the existing ones.
Wellington also said Thursday it was considering using decades-old laws restricting vehicle use if fuel supplies dwindled. And Australian officials announced they will adjust fuel quality standards to allow higher sulfur levels for around two months in a move that will release 100 million litres into the domestic supply.
The surge in oil prices has stoked fears about another spike in inflation and possible interest rate hikes, after central banks had been contemplating cuts just last month.
That has weighed on equities, which resumed their retreat Thursday. Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Mumbai, Wellington, Singapore, Taipei, Manila and Jakarta were all deep in the red. London, Paris and Frankfurt also dropped at the open.
“When the geopolitical fire alarm is still ringing around the Strait of Hormuz, dumping barrels from emergency stockpiles is less a solution than a symbolic gesture,” wrote Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.
“It might dampen volatility for a few hours but it cannot change the geometry of risk when the world’s most important shipping artery is under threat.
“In trading desk language, the IEA release is the equivalent of pointing a garden hose at a refinery blaze.” Still, Trump reiterated his insistence that the strikes had already practically defeated Iran. “They are pretty much at the end of the line,” he told reporters, after delivering a speech to supporters in which he declared: “We’ve won… we won — in the first hour it was over.” Israel’s military, however, signalled the campaign was far from finished, and that it still had “a broad bank of targets.”