NEW YORK: An unknown trader earned a windfall of about $410,000 after correctly betting that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s removal from power, according to data from the Polymarket prediction platform. The anonymous account placed bets on contracts tied to Maduro’s removal days before a US military operation captured him, Reuters data shows.
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The trader’s Polymarket account—created in late December—built up positions in contracts that were priced at long odds. Before the weekend raid, the total value of these positions was around $34,000. But when news broke of Maduro’s capture by US forces, the value of those bets surged, resulting in a more than 12‑fold profit for the bettor.
Prediction markets like Polymarket let users buy and sell yes‑or‑no contracts on outcomes ranging from politics to entertainment. Prices fluctuate with perceived likelihood, meaning early bets on low‑probability events can yield large gains if the outcome occurs.
The trade has drawn attention from lawmakers and regulators because of its timing. Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres said he plans to introduce legislation to ban elected officials and federal employees from placing bets on prediction markets where they might access material nonpublic information.
Polymarket recently secured approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate after acquiring a licensed derivatives exchange, but it has previously faced scrutiny over insider trading risks and opaque mechanisms. Many users, including US residents, reportedly access the platform via VPNs despite restrictions.
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The identity of the mystery trader remains unknown, and it is unclear whether regulators are investigating the trades, especially given concerns about insider knowledge and prediction market transparency.