Experts have warned that prolonged disruptions in Pakistan-Afghanistan trade and transit are fuelling economic uncertainty and regional instability. They said unpredictability in cross-border movement has emerged as a more damaging factor than costs, severely affecting livelihoods and regional connectivity.
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These views were expressed during an online dialogue titled “Exploring Pathways to Pakistan-Afghanistan Trade and Economic Connectivity” organised by the Centre for Research and Security Studies. Policymakers, customs officials, business leaders and economic experts from both countries participated in the discussion.
Khan Jan Alokozay, co-president of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said peace in the region was closely linked to economic stability. He stressed that consistent and predictable trade was essential for sustainable bilateral relations and long-term regional integration.
Former Sarhad Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Fazal Moqeem Khan called for the creation of cross-border economic zones. He said such initiatives could institutionalise cooperation, encourage joint manufacturing and move trade relations beyond ad hoc arrangements.
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Highlighting the human cost, Mujeeb Shinwari, president of the All Torkham Customs Clearing Agents Association, said border communities suffered the most from repeated closures. He noted that persistent disruptions had crippled local economies dependent on cross-border activity.
Naqeebullah Safi, executive director of the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce’s Kabul office, warned that uncertainty was pushing Afghan markets away from Pakistan. He said trade should guide political decisions rather than be subordinated to them.
Former Afghanistan Investment Support Agency vice president Ibrahim Shams cautioned that economic deprivation lay at the heart of instability. He said prolonged trade blockages deepened insecurity instead of resolving it.
Participants also pointed to stalled production, disrupted supply chains and job losses, particularly in agriculture-linked and small industries. Speakers urged coordinated engagement by chambers of commerce, smoother customs operations and joint advocacy to restore predictability.
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The dialogue concluded that sustained trade disruptions risk long-term economic realignment in the region. Experts warned that without timely corrective measures, the economic and social fallout could further undermine regional stability.