Afghanistan is the most sought-after landmass, perhaps due to its geographical location. From Alexander (I do not write Great with his name as most people do), to the British via the Moghuls, and the Soviets to the Americans, nearly every military power of the time has invaded this country. Some stayed for an extended period during the early years of recorded history, while others left early, such as the Soviets, departing within just 10 years.
Why is Afghanistan so dear to the military powers of the time, and that too at regular intervals throughout recorded history? It calls for a closer look at its map and its neighbours. Afghanistan’s location remains attractive for strategic reasons for the global powers. It sits at the crossroads of Central Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia. Afghanistan remains a crucial location for understanding my concept of MESACA (Middle East, South Asia, and Central Asia), which I presented approximately two years ago, particularly in relation to Pakistan’s geographical significance.
Returning to Afghanistan, the global powers sought to establish a presence here to monitor the surrounding regions. In the ancient period, the Persian Empire, in an effort to expand, invaded the country and incorporated it into the Achaemenid Empire in the 6th Century BCE. The Macedonians, under Alexander, attempted to conquer the Persian Empire by invading the country in 330 BCE.
While the Taliban government seems to control most of the territory and make up for lost ground after decades of wars and conflicts, the question remains when the next war will be for the absolute control of Afghanistan.
Arabs, in an effort to spread Islam and expand various Caliphates (Umayyad and Abbasid), came to the region in the 7th and & 8th centuries. Mongols swept the area and did not spare Afghanistan in the 13th Century, before the Muslim Rulers from Central Asia returned to power. The most notable were Timurs (late 14th Century) and the Mughals (16th Century onwards).
However, soon after the Mughals, the Persians, under Nader Shah, took control of Afghanistan in 1738, before the British arrived in the region in the late 19th and early 20th Centuries. From then on, a continuous struggle for control between the Russians and the British continued for a prolonged period, during which several wars ensued. At the time and perhaps even now, historians refer to it as the Great Game between Britain and Russia.
After several wars, Afghanistan became part of the British Protectorate in 1880; however, the country gained complete independence from Britain in 1919. The relative period of peace, which led to some development in the war-ravaged country, Afghanistan, was during the rule of King Zahir Shah between 1933 and 1973. During this period (the Cold War era), both the US and the Soviets tried to influence the King with financial support and promises of development. However, the global powers could not resist the temptation of controlling the lands at the crossroads of the Middle East, South Asia, and Central Asia. Hence, the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in 1979, which marked the beginning of a prolonged period of wars, conflicts, and instability which has been ongoing since then.
The purpose of this brief overview of Afghanistan through the pages of history is to highlight the significance of the country’s geographical location, which cannot be changed. Likewise, the stakeholders’ greed for power and interests is also less likely to change due to the dictates of realism.
While the Taliban government seems to control most of the territory and make up for lost ground after decades of wars and conflicts, the question remains when the next war will be for the absolute control of Afghanistan. Moreover, will it be due to strategic malfunction within the Taliban regime or the miscalculations of the stakeholders to reenter Afghanistan, physically occupying the territory to keep an eye on other regional powers? In the same context, the most significant statement came from US President Donald Trump, who said that he wants the Bagam Base back because it is not far from China. Trump’s desire implies that the US wants its presence in Bagram Base primarily to check China’s political influence in the region.
Soon after Trump’s statement, several regional powerhouses have stated that they do not want the US presence in Afghanistan. These countries include China, India and Russia. Afghanistan itself has indicated that it will not cede control of Bagaram Base to the US again.
The situation cannot be declared as interesting, but uncertain and serious, particularly in the wake of terrorist attacks from Afghanistan into Pakistan and the country’s response to eliminate the leadership of such groups hiding inside Afghanistan. Although an uneasy ceasefire has been implemented between the two states, the rhetorical statements continue from both sides, which can fuel the strained relationship, particularly after Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister’s extended visit to India. More on this later.
It is necessary to mention that the next war in Afghanistan will have far more consequences, not only for Pakistan, but also for the other regional and extraregional powers, due to the evolving world order. Therefore, it is incumbent upon all stakeholders to strive for peace and stability in Afghanistan at any cost.
The writer of this article has authored four international books: Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan, South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace, Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War, and Diplomacy and Deterrence.”
The writer of this article has authored four international books: Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan, South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace, Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War, and Diplomacy and Deterrence.”