It seems that when Donald Trump said that “India, Russia Can Take Their Dead Economies Down Together”, he was also symbolising Pakistan as Ukraine. Ukraine is rich in rare earth minerals and holds access to the Black Sea, which makes the region a geopolitical pivot. Pakistan has recently come on the radar due to similar characteristics as Ukraine – in terms of rare earth and other offshore and underground undiscovered minerals. Like the Black Sea which borders Ukraine, the Arabian Sea borders southern Pakistan, making it a geopolitical pivot as well.
These landscape commonalities must have been in Trump’s mind when he stated: “We have just concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves,” and also “We are in the process of choosing the Oil Company that will lead this Partnership. Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India someday!”
Instability equals business and Trump is a businessman.
Another striking commonality between Ukraine and Pakistan – which is possibly of even more concern to Trump’s ‘America First’ capitalist mindset – is what stands beside these regions: Russia and China, both dominated by communist ideologies.
However, the difference that makes Pakistan even more strategically important than Ukraine for the U.S. is the nature of their respective alliances. China and Pakistan are in a strategic ‘bromance’, while Russia and Ukraine have a relationship rooted in dominance. Unlike the U.S. alliance with Ukraine, the China-Pakistan bond leaves the U.S. with little room to humiliate or pressurise Pakistan, and to play with wits – at least in today’s environment of rising market competition, growing public unrest, and rapid advances in IT and AI.
But the question that arises is: Why is Pakistan, in alliance with China, more acceptable to the U.S. than India-which shares a stronger historical rivalry with China and arguably offers more regional value? India, in fact, shares similar landscape advantages, and both the U.S. and India have tense relations with China. Then why has Pakistan suddenly become more precious than India?
To answer this, let’s begin with the geopolitical drama that followed Trump’s second term in office. Holding a clear “America First” ideology, Trump has initiated tariff wars around the world, sustaining trade tensions and disrupting supply chains. His controversial claims of promoting peace in Gaza for capitalist gains sparked unrest among citizens and global leaders alike. Later, Pakistan claimed Trump had played a peace-making role after Operation Sindoor and Operation Bunyan um Marsoos, military operations between India and Pakistan, leaving both publics in confusion. Soon after, the U.S.-backed Israeli strikes on Iran aimed to halt Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, putting both countries on high alert.
In light of these events, it becomes evident that for Trump, it’s not just about America First – it’s also about maintaining U.S. hegemony in the Eastern Hemisphere, where China is on the rise.
President Donald Trump’s intentions to tap into the oil reserves of Pakistan, emerging trade agreements, and lower export tariffs compared to India, explain the soft diplomatic tilt. Its location at the crossroads of three sensitive zones – Iran, Afghanistan, and the Arabian Sea – offers the U.S. a strategic launchpad to counter China’s growing influence and keep the region in check. Here is how it seems in this way:
Importance of Low Tariffs on Pakistani Exports
The U.S. imports textiles (e.g., bed linens, towels), medical and surgical tools, leather goods, rice, and sports products like soccer balls from Pakistan. If disrupted, U.S. industries wouldn’t collapse, but costs and supply chain delays would occur. While imports from Pakistan are not vital to the U.S. economy, they serve important niche markets.
Of increasing significance is Pakistan’s freelance software services sector – offering cost-effective digital skills (UI/UX, coding, marketing) to U.S. tech companies via platforms like Upwork and Fiverr. Although still niche, disruptions here would affect the U.S. tech industry to a limited extent. So, it’s not just about trade, but a disguised intention.
Rare Earth Minerals and Oil Drilling: Uncertainty and Risk
The presence of rare earths and hydrocarbons in Pakistan is still speculative. The 2019 Kekra-1 offshore drilling project, involving ExxonMobil, ENI, and Pakistani firms, came out as a dry hole, with no commercial oil or gas found. While today, the Reko Diq copper-gold project in Balochistan (backed by a Canadian firm) gives some hope, overall foreign investor confidence remains fragile due to past failures.
However, still, the strategic value for the U.S. is still high. Even amid uncertainty, this deal lets the U.S. establish an energy foothold in South Asia – more about influence than partnership.
Here, another point that raises scepticism is related to China’s role in drilling for rare earths and offshore hydrocarbons in Pakistan.
China’s Strategy: Wait and Watch
As of late 2024, 2,300+ Chinese firms operate in Pakistan across industries. China accounted for 50% of all FDI in FY 2024-25 (around US$1.22?billion) – confirming its economic dominance in Pakistan.
So why hasn’t China drilled Pakistan’s offshore reserves yet?
Because China’s strategy is calculated patience. Following the Kekra-1 failure, China appears to be letting others test the waters before committing. It has been China’s strategy to let others explore, then take stakes once viability is clearer. For the time being, China is already heavily invested in other energy-rich regions, like the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia, where reserves are proven, Infrastructure is developed and Political and business environments are somewhat more predictable.
However, still, China still benefits indirectly. The current 20% oil Pakistan imports from the U.S. powers the industries where Chinese firms operate. And now low export tariffs from Pakistan indirectly boost China’s exports by supporting Chinese-invested production in Pakistan. China’s soft power game is strong.
What Offshore Drilling Means for Pakistan
Pakistan exports nearly 94% of its U.S.-bound goods in textiles. In FY 2024-25, it exported about USD?6.03 billion to the U.S., a 10.7% increase YoY, with textiles as the backbone. Lower tariffs are a big economic plus for Pakistan, yet.
If commercial reserves of offshore hydrocarbons are found, it could transform Pakistan’s economy, reduce IMF dependence, and decrease over-reliance on China. The Reko Diq project’s 50-50 revenue split could stand as a model for future drilling investments for resource fairness and regional development.
And now from here, the scepticism related to the sudden favour of the USA to Pakistan continues:
When the USA wants a boost in Pakistan’s exports, it reflects the intentions of boosting budget of Pakistan. Despite economic hardship, Pakistan still allocates a large portion of its budget to defence. But ‘Defence’ from whom? It’s India in the east and Afghanistan in the west mainly.
Now, recent UN reports have indicated that terrorist groups remain active and pose serious threats to Central Asia and other regions. Groups like BLA, TTP, ISIL-K, and Al-Qaeda are fueling regional instability. The BLA-TTP nexus, indoctrination of youth by ISIL-K, and cross-border terrorism have reignited fears of extremism.
Pakistan has reaffirmed its zero-tolerance stance and pushed the international community to ban the Majeed Brigade, BLA’s armed wing.
And now, to counter these extremist threats, Pakistan needs defence supplies. Historically, U.S. foreign policy has also considered these threats a justification for military engagement in the eastern hemisphere. Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran – all nuclear or nuclear-aspiring Muslim states – sit in a volatile triangle. Among these countries, the U.S will want to watch Iran more closely after the Israel-Iran escalation. Moreover, halting China’s economic growth is among the major goals for the U.S to retain its hegemony.
Trump’s praise for Pakistani leadership, General Asim Munir’s visit to the U.S., low-tariff favorability and trade agreement, all align with the rising urgency for regional military preparedness, rather than friendly collaboration on discovering uncertain offshore and underground reserves.
The Bigger Game: U.S. Military Exports and Economic Strategy
If South Asia remains unstable, demand for U.S. arms will surge – hurting industrial investment to which China has invested, but helping the U.S. defence sector, which, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), accounts for 40% of global arms exports.
So, when Trump did not forget to mention India in the oil deal statement with Pakistan, it was a strategic nudge to keep the Pakistan-India relationship unstable. Instability equals business and Trump is a businessman.
The writer is an international News Reporter and can be reached at ommamausman @gmail.com