The year 2024 has witnessed numerous political transitions and events globally. The collapse of the infamous Assad dictatorship in Syria was a momentous event that impacted the world.
The regime, previously deemed invulnerable, which maintained its authority by dismantling the rebels’ armies and suppressing any potential insurrections, fell in 2024. By the conclusion of November, Syrian insurgents commenced their offensive. By the conclusion of November, the insurgents, commanded by Abu Mohammad Zolani, also referred to as Ahmad Al Sharra, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), effectively seized the city of Holmes via a clandestine assault. Subsequently, the insurgents seized the second most significant city, Aleppo. Bashar al-Assad’s military was unable to endure such a catastrophic strike against the alliance and assaults from the rebel factions.
On December 8, 2024, the Syrian rebels and the populace took Damascus. The removal of the autocratic Bashar Al-Assad from Syria and the conclusion of the 53-year reign of the Assad family is regarded as a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern history. Despite the Arab Spring of 2011, which initiated the revolution against the Syrian dictatorship, it took the rebels nearly 13 years to depose the Assad regime. Upon HTS’s entry into Damascus, the Syrian president absconded via a Russian aircraft. Owing to that, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that President Bashar al-Assad had resigned and was under protection in Russia.
The humanitarian crisis in Syria is quite serious, and it is only being exacerbated by the rising price of food and the decrease in subsidies provided by the Assad regime for food and fuel.
The announcement follows a decrease in the military power of the Assad regime in Syria, which was caused by an attack by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other opposition groups, specifically in the Syrian National Army (SNA) lines backed by Turkey.
The attack was carried out with the responsibility of HTS and other opposition factions. And while some opposition forces fight each other for territories, the United Nations envoy for Syria warned that hostilities will happen. Regions formerly governed by the Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Syrian Transitional Forces (HTS) have recently transitioned to the operational control of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) with the help of the United States.
There are now more than 16.7 million people in need of aid in Syria, the highest figure since January 2011. Therefore, the situation in Syria is extremely dangerous. The humanitarian crisis in Syria is quite serious, and it is only being exacerbated by the rising price of food and the decrease in subsidies provided by the Assad regime for food and fuel.
Syria’s education, roadways, and healthcare systems have received significant damage due to the destruction of infrastructure as a result of the conflict. That includes the demolition of these facilities. Countries that border Syria have sought to repatriate refugees who escaped the country. The Prime Minister, appointed by Assad, remained in Damascus and transferred authorities to a governance framework that was managed by former officials of the HTS administration in Idlib, which constituted the foundational basis of the organization.
The Prime Minister stayed in Damascus. Among other organizations, HTS has been branded as a terrorist organization by the United States of America, the United Nations Security Council, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. This goal drives them to pursue HTS to protect civilians and minority groups and guarantee that the transfer of power happens as peacefully as possible. And whatever happens in Syria shortly will be the key to whether or not decisions are made about the possible removal of sanctions.
In December, HTS’s dealings with the United States of America, the European Union, and the United Kingdom were all registered. The overthrowing of Bashar Al Assad has led to continued warfare and military operations in Syria.
Israel and Turkey are the protagonists of foreign actors in these conflict and military haven operations. The Israeli Organizations Forces (IDF) have also expanded their operations into territory disputed between Israel and Syria. They previously moved their operations from occupying the Golan Heights to occupying a UN buffer zone and breaking into southern Syria. Following the disintegration of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the Israeli Organizations Force (IDF) engaged in 498 operations in Syria, targeting the eradication of chemical weapons and military equipment.
The United States regards the Palestinian Heights as Israeli territory. Furthermore, Turkey persists in providing support to the Syrian National Army (SNA), which commenced operations against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in November 2024. Turkey has claimed that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are connected to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a terrorist organization recognized as such by various nations, including the European Union and the United Kingdom, which is accountable for an insurgency in Turkey.
Turkey has failed to furnish any evidence to substantiate its claim. The recent events have significantly impacted this “axis of resistance”. Assad’s departure endangers a crucial land corridor between Iran and Lebanon, and this comes at a time when Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran themselves are faltering militarily in their respective encounters with Israel during 2023-24. This is all a situation that can have a lot of implications across the region.
While Israel has never faced Bashar al-Assad’s forces directly, the two countries have yet to sign a formal peace treaty and have been embroiled in large-scale hostilities since 1948. This is true even though the two countries have never engaged in direct warfare. The Israeli establishment believes the threats coming out of Syria have “intensified.”
There is still no clarity regarding the political transition in Syria, given the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) detain thousands of Islamic State-affiliated fighters and shelter more than 40,000 family members and others in camps. Several states, including the USA, the UK, the United Nations (UN) and the European Union, have affirmed their support for political negotiations that comply with Security Council resolution 2254 (2015).
Similarly, Russian military installations in Syria have been viewed as a means through which Russia can expand its influence across the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and North Africa. Turkey expresses apprehensions regarding the PKK while underscoring the need for the Syrian Democratic Forces’ ongoing participation in the anti-ISIS initiative. Conversely, the current implications for Israel remain unclear.
This resolution also mandates that a new Syrian constitution needs to be created; transitional authorities must protect human rights, uphold public services, abolish the stockpiles of chemical weapons, hold free and fair elections and ensure accountability for human rights violations by Assad. Hopefully, the new interim government has set out to establish an accountable regime, balanced foreign policy, and renew both strategic and military alliances to alleviate Syria towards a new dimension coming above every possible challenge this country might face in the future.
The writer is a scholar based in Dhaka.