The acronym “VUCA” was coined at the US Army War College and later published in 1991 by Herbert Barber.
The acronym described the world as being characterized by dynamic and chaotic developments and an absence of a clear and stable power structure being Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous. Political scientists and military practitioners still use VUCA to describe the abstract of the geopolitical environment and how various actors interact with each other.
The international order that emulates the relations between states, emerged in the 17th century as a fallout of the 1648 Peace of Westphalia. Ever since this order has remained dynamic and amorphous adopting a shape dictated by political powers that could exercise hegemony over others. Post-20th century World Wars, the widespread perception after the creation of the UN and the enactment of its charter was that the world would not slide back into the savagery of incredible human suffering.
A stable geo-political structure orchestrated under the UN was expected to maintain Woodrow Wilson’s “jungle of international politics” as zoo and selfish realists tamed if not leashed. Unfortunately, historians continue to scribe tales of geo-political contestation infested with frequent use of organized or unorganized violence in a global environment of incessant conflicts. Within the 20th Century world transitioned from bipolar to unipolar and from uni-multipolar to now an apparent partial bipolar stretched between a weakening US-led west and a rising China-aligned states.
The International Liberal Order established post World War II advocated a global system of governance, institutes and norms that were structured on principles like democracy, human rights, rule of law etc. Championed by the USA the system of institutions created under the New World Order was expected to promote cooperation in issues including security, trade, health and economy pegged to a set of rules and an in-built code of norms and moral values.
Despite knowing the catastrophic consequences of unchecked hyper-nationalism, unregulated technological use and mistrust, great powers seem poised to recur the same mistakes on an even more destructive scale.
The system of international relations that rests on the distribution and balance of power has been paradoxical to the rule-based liberal international order that is structured on consensus and moral obligations. The utopian world dreamt in Yalta, Potsdam and San Francisco Conferences crumbled amidst the US vs USSR Cold War. Though expected to hold global peace, the liberal order itself fell apart into pieces.
Every year of the 20th century witnessed wars and an estimated 187 million people have died as a result of wars and conflicts since 1900. Wars in Afghanistan, the Middle East and Eastern Europe had grossly undermined the authority of global institutions. Superpowers have waged wars, sponsored cease-fires or allowed the continuation of armed conflicts for self-interests. In all this, morality and humanity continue to pay the toll. More than a yearlong genocide in Gaza remains the most blatant contemporary example. While 43,000 civilians lay dead global institutions remained shrouded in a deafening silence shackled to repeated vetoes by the US.
Israeli incursions into Lebanon and Syria raise no eyebrows despite violations of Laws of Armed Conflict and human rights. Thousands if not millions have died in Yemen and Sudan with no apparent role of global institutions to find an intervention or a mitigation. International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant against Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin, however, it yet remains a near impossibility that any state actor will have the moral courage to implement ICC verdicts.
International Financial Institutes that were once mandated to foster and promote financial and macroeconomic stability, have instead become tools of coercion for political arm-twisting and inducing a behavioural change in nonconformist states challenging sovereignty. It remains apparent that the “Zoo” and Woodrow Wilson’s dream for enduring peace remain far from any reality.
The prevalent violent geo-political world order is getting immensely characterized and marred by the use and often abuse of information along with a breakneck speed of technological innovations. The nexus of both are creating new threats such as destabilizing political systems, undermining international credibility, disrupting financial systems and creating societal polarizations through mutilated information infused with technology that manipulates perceptions (cognitive warfare).
Advancements in cyber warfare made it possible to implant a worm that disabled an Iranian nuclear reactor. Imagine the destructiveness of a similar cyber-attack that could convert a fertilizer plant using ammonium nitrate (urea) or compressed oxygen into huge explosive devices like what was witnessed in Beirut.
The fusion of unmanned combat systems with AI has made it possible for a drone to take off from a location thousands of miles away, equipped with AI-enabled face recognition technology and highly accurate projectiles, take input from satellite, identify the target, execute the attacked using its targeting criteria and returns to home base.
The Israeli targeting operation called “mass assassination factories” have used AI-based soft wares Gospel and Lavender for AI-generated kill lists with almost no human intervention in the selection and execution of probable targets. The question arises: Who is to be blamed for collateral damage? The one who made or flew the drone, the software engineer who created the AI software, or the AI itself? The innovative nexus of information with technology challenges and questions morality yet again.
Given the regressive evolution in world affairs, the acronym VUCA is transformative. It adopts a more damning representation along with space for two more factors that depict the world in a much ominous manner, VUCA transmutes into a more expanded ‘VUCAII’ where the two “I” represent; Immorality and Innovations. In the complex geopolitical milieu, VUCAII can thus be decoded as per each alphabet: Volatility (V) – expresses the unpredictable as well as rapid alteration in global power dynamics that begets instability, it more aptly reflects violence now superseding volatility; Uncertainty (U) – explains the lack of predictability and non-conformist jitteriness in actions and goals of states; Complexity (C) – denotes the complex and ever chaotic strategic environment due to divergent and conflicting interests of states alongside emergence of complex and interconnected threats; Ambiguity (A) – reflects the inability to come to coherent conclusions due to conflicting narratives, inadequate information, and unclear rules; Immorality (I) – represents the growing dilution and often absence of moral values with respect to international politics and erosion of authority vested in international institutions; and finally Innovation (I) – exhibits the technological innovations unwrapping opportunities of unparalleled scale while concurrently unveiling the destructive nature of technology and raising ethical, legal and moral dilemmas.
The world sits at a crossroads, as global order evolves into a more violent, uncertain, chaotic, ambiguous, immoral, and innovation-driven framework. The ideals of the post-WWII liberal order which were rooted in the optimistic human nature have been crushed under the heft of geopolitical rivalries, conflicts and self-interests.
Technological modernization, once proclaimed as humanity’s great benefit and counterbalance, now poses unparalleled ethical dilemmas and has extraordinary destructive potential. From militarization and misuse of artificial intelligence to the destruction of moral values in global politics, the world is witnessing a convergence of threats that challenge state sovereignty and the fabric of international norms and institutions.
Despite knowing the catastrophic consequences of unchecked hyper-nationalism, unregulated technological use and mistrust, great powers seem poised to recur the same mistakes on an even more destructive scale than witnessed in the world wars. In a world characterized by VUCAII, does the glimmer of recalibrating global priorities toward cooperation, justice, and sustainability exist?
Ultimately, the query we all must confront is this, ‘in the contemporary age of boundless innovation and deteriorating morality, will humanity rise to meet these challenges, or succumb to the chaos it has created? It appears that all the ingredients of VUCAII signify the world being at an inflexion point where any strategic miscalculation by the great powers will have consequences far beyond their regions. Something that would be regrettable for generations to come unless sanity prevails.
The writer is a freelance columnist.