Donald Trump has staged a spectacular come back. He is going to assume the US Presidency in January 2025. His widely-predicted policies on China, trans-Atlantic alliance, wars, globalization, trade wars, and protectionism would have profound impact on the current economic and strategic international order. Pakistan would be concerned on two counts: the renewed Sino-US rivalry with its potential consequences for the smaller states, protectionism or the increased tariffs on the foreign imports, the US being the second largest destination of its exports.
The opportunities are always underlined by challenges for a nation. The success of a nation lies in successfully exploiting its advantageous geo-strategic position to avail of the opportunities while braving the challenges coming to its way. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) confronts Pakistan with daunting challenges putting to hard test its political capability for good governance and diplomacy. The Pakistan government, while bound to address the security concerns of China, would have to keep a watchful eye on the hostile countries hell-bent to sabotage the $60billion project.
The importance of CPEC is underscored by the potential economic and trade connectivity with Central Asia and beyond. The Central Asian region, rich in hydrocarbon resources, minerals and agricultural products particularly cotton, borders with China, Afghanistan, Iran and Russia, and is landlocked and dependent on the seaports of China, Russia, Iran and Turkey and Pakistan. The Chinese and the Russian seaports are too distant to be commercially profitable for these states. The Iran’s Seaport of Bandar Abbas is also located at a distance of almost 5000 kilometers while the Gwadar seaport is only 2700 kilometers from Tajikistan’s capital.
The success of a nation lies in successfully exploiting its advantageous geo-strategic position to avail of the opportunities while braving the challenges coming to its way.
This equally applies to the existing and potential oil and gas pipe lines to connect with South and South East Asia and the world market. Apart from the Soviet era pipelines carrying oil and gas from Central Asia to Europe, Russia has sponsored International South-West Transport Corridor along with Iran and some 20 Eurasian countries and India with routes and railways from Iran to the Russian Caspian port of Astra Khan. The second option with Central Asian Republics is to lay oil and gas pipelines from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea ports of Turkey. The first pipeline (Caspian-Tbilisi-Black Sea) on this route was operationalized in 2006. The third option for the outflow of their oil and gas is to use the route to Afghanistan-Iran-Pakistan to connect with the world market.
The Asian Development Bank, in one of its reports, has estimated that after the operationalization of this economic connectivity within greater Asia, the trade between Central Asian states and Afghanistan would increase to $12 billion with the creation of some 7,50,000 jobs. The GDP of Xinjiang would increase by three percent. The Eurasian Bridge being constructed by China beyond its Xinjiang region to open direct trade links with Europe by overland transportation via Central Asia would considerably reduce the transit and freight charges of containers. The road transportation of containers from China transiting through Xinjiang and Central Asia to Rotterdam would reduce transit time to 11 days from the present 20-40 days taken by the seaborne consignments with a considerable decrease in freight charges. This will give a tremendous boost to trade between Asia and Europe.
Strategically, Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan enjoy vitally important positions than the other contenders in the new economic great game being played out in the Central Asian region. The CPEC has well placed Pakistan to benefit enormously from the economic and commercial connectivity with Central Asian region and the overland trade with Europe due to its connectivity with Xinjiang through Gwadar deep seaport. The short transit period, short distance and reduced freight are important factors in promoting trade and transportation of commercial goods. The Gwadar port will potentially attract bulk of the cargo transiting through Xinjiang to Europe.
The economic Great Game in the Central Asian region contextualizes the vital importance of the CPEC as a game changer for both China and Pakistan. It links Pakistan directly with Xinjiang, Central Asian States and Europe giving a fillip to its geo-economics. It would help China achieve its long term economic objectives to mainstream its Xinjiang region and address the unrest in the Uighur Muslim population. China has been relentlessly following some well-defined foreign policy objectives in the Asian region through bilateral and multilateral diplomacy to ensure political stability and security at home and in the region; to create an alternative transport corridor to Europe through Central Asia; to curb ethno-religious extremism and separatism.
The Western Pacific nations have been looking at the BRI with trepidations. Although China has since been stressing the importance of BRI as an economic initiative to sustain its earlier GDP growth, the Western analysts decline to believe in what the Chinese leadership says and see more to it. The grand project was launched in 2013 by President Xi Jinping at the heels of the USA President Barak Obama’s ‘pivot to Asia’ policy pronounced in 2011. The Western countries impart a strategic objective to BRI viewing it as an attempt to counter US ‘China containment’ policy. Therefore, Pakistan would come under the US pressure on CPEC if the Sino-US rivalry intensifies in the coming years.
The economic benefits of the CPEC are enormous, and the foreign policy challenges formidable too. We have to review our bilateral relations with Iran and Afghanistan. The absence of peace and stability in Afghanistan has so far prevented this vitally important project to realize its potential. The fast changing geo-economic and geo-political situation make it imperative for us to fully support international and regional endeavors to create inclusive governing structures in war-ravaged Afghanistan. While seconding China to include Afghanistan and Iran in CPEC, we also have to neutralize the hostilities to the CPEC from within and without. The security of the routes would be the main factor for Gwadar to flourish.
The author was a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and he has authored two books.