Asian markets struggled Tuesday to extend a Wall Street and European rally as traders nervously await US inflation data, while lingering concerns about China’s economy remain a millstone.
The consumer price index report is one of the key indicators that help guide the Federal Reserve’s policy decision-making. Next week’s meeting is expected to see officials hold interest rates and its statement will be pored over for its thinking for the future.
Equities have endured a largely rough September on concerns that recent figures pointing to a resilient economy and jobs market will pressure the bank to tighten once more this year as it looks to defeat inflation.
That has been compounded by mixed signals from Fed officials, with some pushing for another hike and others saying it would be best for the economy to wait and see the effects of more than a year of lifting.
With boss Jerome Powell insisting that choices would be based on incoming data, investors have taken weak economic readings as being good news for the rates outlook. “This week is more likely to be a ‘good news is good, bad news is bad’ story,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“The market’s ability to rebound in the near term could hinge on this week’s inflation numbers, especially Wednesday’s CPI.” A group of leading economists at some of the world’s biggest banks said they did not expect the Fed would hike again and would begin slashing borrowing costs in the new year, while they also predicted the United States would avoid a recession.
“Given both demonstrated and anticipated progress on inflation, the majority of the committee members believe the Fed’s tightening cycle has run its course,” said Simona Mocuta, chair of the 14-member American Bankers Association’s Economic Advisory Committee.