The loyalty, courage, sincerity, trustworthiness, and simplicity of Sudanese are truly remarkable and set them apart from other races of the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. I admire the Sudanese based on my experience of visiting Sudan regularly from 1999 to 2002. Sudan was once one of the largest and most diverse states in Africa, and even though it split into two in 2011, Sudan and South Sudan still hold a significant amount of proven oil reserves, making them the 23rd largest oil reserve country in the world. They hold a staggering five billion barrels of oil, which is equivalent to 98 times more than the current annual consumption of Sudan.
Nevertheless, despite these positive attributes, the Sudanese people have been subjected to political and economic turmoil that is being manipulated by unknown forces.
The conspiracies involve the exploitation of valuable resources such as oil, diamonds, gold, and land as well as subdue the human resource potential. For years, military coups have dominated the political system in Sudan, with the Army holding a tight grip on power. In April 2019, the people of Sudan had enough and staged a massive protest, leading to the ousting of Omar al-Bashir, who had been in power for a staggering 30 years. However, public demonstrations continued; demanding democratic elections and the establishment of a civilian government. This led to an agreement between the military and the protesters, resulting in the formation of the “Sovereignty Council,” a power-sharing body of military officers and civilians, which will lead Sudan to elections at the end of 2023.
The new political arrangement was short-lived as the military overthrew the interim government in October 2021. General Abdel Fattah Burhan, Commander of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), became the de-facto leader of the country. Burhan announced that the military would hold power until elections are held in July 2023. On the other hand, the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a collection of militias created as a parallel command to the Army by General Bashir, mostly fighting in Darfur, follow the former warlord Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti. The RSF was formed in 2013 when the Sudanese government formalised pro-government militia groups, particularly the Janjaweed, who were operating in Darfur, southwestern Sudan.
The RSF and the SAF worked jointly to overthrow former President al-Bashir in April 2019. The key issue underpinning the conflict is the integration of RSF with the armed forces. Up until President al-Bashir’s removal in April 2019, the RSF sat under the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) rather than the national military. Since then, the RSF’s formal chain of command has been unclear and the RSF has essentially operated with autonomy. The preceding fragmentation and current conflict between the RSF and the SAF mean that the events of 15 April 2023 differ significantly from previous military coups. This situation significantly increases the likelihood of Sudan falling into a prolonged military conflict.
From the inheritance of ancient kingdoms to modern-day challenges, Sudan has faced numerous complexities.
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have different military strengths, capabilities, and tasks. The SAF is the primary military force responsible for defending the country and has tanks, fighter jets, and attack helicopters. The RSF is a paramilitary force focused on internal security and counter-insurgency. Given the impressive capabilities of the SAF in terms of weaponry and personnel, particularly their tanks, and utilization of the Air Force, it is highly probable that any eventual ceasefire agreement would be dictated by the SAF upon the RSF. Issues like tribal tensions and civil unrest in Darfur may further exacerbate this conflict. Despite the SAF’s superior capabilities, the ongoing conflict between the two groups may lead to a prolonged civil war. The conflict has significantly diminished the possibility of continuing with its planned transition to a civilian government over the short to medium term.
The prolonged history of Sudan is a tale of intricacy, diversity, and perseverance. From the inheritance of ancient kingdoms to modern-day challenges, Sudan has faced numerous complexities and opportunities. Despite the prevailing disorders, there is a glimmer of hope for Sudan’s future. The country possesses immense potential, with plentiful natural resources, young and educated human resources, and numerous possibilities for future growth and development. The appropriate leadership must be in place to guide the nation toward a brighter future. Additionally, the support of neighbouring regions is crucial in achieving this goal.
The ongoing conflict in Sudan is a matter of great concern, not only for the people of Sudan but for the international community at large. The region has become a battleground for various influential nations, including Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, all vying for control and influence. Of particular interest are the Saudis and the UAE, who view the transition of power in Sudan as an opportunity to counteract radical forces in the area. However, the key players who could exert pressure on the rival Sudanese generals are Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt. By leveraging their influence and financial resources, these nations can play a significant role in resolving the conflict and promoting stability in the region. The international community must also play a role in supporting these efforts and ensuring that the people of Sudan are not left to suffer the consequences of this ongoing conflict.
“The drums of war are the drums of hunger.” (African Proverb)
The writer is a retired Pakistan army officer