With the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) still lingering in uncertainty, the new year, so far, is proving to be disastrous for Pakistan. The recent bomb blasts in Rawalpindi, Bannu and Mustang show how important the developments of the new year are for the security of this country. The regional geo-strategic political atmosphere is changing as the US is focusing on the complete or partial withdrawal of its forces, depending on the signature on the BSA by Afghan President Karzai. The US will either take off with all its forces or will leave 10,000 to 15,000 security personnel. A power vacuum will certainly be created and coping with this power vacuum in Afghanistan will be the real challenge for regional countries.
The implications of this withdrawal can be severe for Pakistan since we not only have a long porous border with Afghanistan but also a cultural proximity, safe havens and the linkage between the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Afghan Taliban. With the withdrawal of the US forces it would be much easier for the insurgents to cross the Pak-Afghan border and threaten stability in Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban have already denounced the BSA and they do not believe in having talks with the Afghan government unless the US-led NATO forces completely withdraw, thus signalling the disaster that can hit the region.
The solution to the problem of dealing with the terrorists lies somewhere between the options of dialogue and a full-fledged military operation. The carrot and stick approach has to be applied to deal with the TTP. Covert and targeted military operations, with the help of strong intelligence reports, have to be undertaken instead of full military action. It is not only about killing the terrorists; rather, it is about killing the ideas that are the motivational force. The phenomenon of terrorism has to be choked — the recruitment grounds of the terrorist organisations have to be cut.
The difference between terrorists and terrorism has to be understood as merely killing the terrorists will not help, like using painkillers for appendicitis. We have to figure out the root causes of terrorism in Pakistan and we have to understand that the TTP is using a certain ideology to get sympathies and recruits. The insurgency, which is fuelled by a religious ideology is seriously dangerous and can only be uprooted by a countering ideology approach and response. We should note that, while the current crop of terrorist leaders can be killed, captured or even rehabilitated, the seeds have already been planted for the next generation. Hence, in the longer term, counter-ideological responses are crucial in disrupting the recruitment and regeneration cycle. There is quite a huge support base of the TTP even in the settled areas of the country because people think that the TTP stands for Islamic sharia. As long as that support base and the mindset of the people are not changed, we can never win this war against terrorism.
Today it is the TTP, tomorrow it can be any other organisation under the cloak of Islamic sharia, challenging the writ of the state. In Pakistan, we have a particular mindset about Islam: anything affiliated or somehow linked with Islam is perceived to be holy, while questioning that affiliation or linkage is considered a sin. This particular mindset and mentality have to be changed since it is actually being used by the terrorist organisations that declare themselves to be the torchbearers of Islamic sharia. In this way, they gain a support base even in the so-called educated class.
One reason for the increase in the support of terrorist organisations is the inefficiency of governments to tackle the problems of the people. People start thinking about prevailing injustices and, for their countering, develop a soft corner for alternate forms of government. That is the reason why the Taliban were successful in getting into power in the 1990s in Afghanistan, as the people welcomed them and looked towards them as their saviours. The 2005 earthquake and the 2010 floods in Pakistan, for instance, showed the inability of the government, providing a perfect opportunity for the terrorist organisations, under different names, to play their part, leaving thousands of people and children at the mercy of the terrorists.
Moreover, terrorism and sectarianism are two different phenomena; both have different causes and targets, but recently what has happened is that the TTP has been able to combine sectarianism with terrorism, making the security conditions even worse. One major objective of terrorist organisations is to get publicity so that they can have a strong impact on the government agencies, and for that they use the print or electronic media, or their own pamphlets — Mullah Fazlullah used his famous FM radio channel. To counter this hunger for publicity, the media has to be controlled and should not be allowed to exaggerate news that terrorises the masses. Moreover, the flow of pamphlets belonging to terrorist organisations has to be stopped and banned. Similarly, the use of loudspeakers in religious institutions should be checked, as a majority of them spread hatred in society and glorify the ‘cause’ of the Taliban.
The areas that have been captured from the terrorists need to be developed in such a way that they do not diverge from the culture and norms of that area; the locals must want to accept such a change. The authorities will have to increase their contacts with the locals, sit with them and listen to their concerns. The deteriorating picture of the state of Pakistan has to be cleaned up in the minds of the tribal people who have to be assured that the government does care about them. Collateral damage has to be controlled, as killing one innocent can result in producing several terrorists.
Terrorist organisations always want an over-reaction from the authorities, which helps in stamping them as innocent and thus getting them support from the masses. The TTP is full of thugs, murderers and dacoits, and does not even recognise the constitution of Pakistan. They are playing their game very tactfully by using the name of Islamic sharia to fulfil their hidden agendas. It is high time for government agencies to carve out a detailed counterinsurgency policy so that growing militancy and extremism can be checked, otherwise the scale of the sensitivity of this issue has the ability to bring more chaos to Pakistan.
The writer is a research associate at the Regional Peace Institute