In the wake of high profile visits from Saudi Arabia and Bahrain to Islamabad and a mysterious $ 1.5 billion gift that Pakistan received, speculations were rife about what was going to happen next. But then, in apparent dissolution of the whole buildup, came the visit of the Pakistani premier to Iran. What is going on is anybody’s guess but some sense can be made of it by examining the whole thing against the backdrop of emerging political realities at the global and regional levels.
At a regional level, the Middle Eastern political landscape is changing in an unprecedented manner with Saudi political hegemony under serious threat. For almost two decades, with relatively stable and, in most cases, friendly governments in most of the countries in the region, Saudi Arabia enjoyed the position of regional powerbroker as the closest US ally. However, in a quick turn of events, set into motion by the outbreak of the Arab Spring, the kingdom is finding itself in a very uncertain and challenging position. First, it lost a few friendly governments and then the Muslim Brotherhood, an organisation it has now blacklisted as a terrorist outfit, assumed power in Egypt. Although the Brotherhood government is history now with a grateful al Sisi likely to rule Egypt for the foreseeable future, also being able to develop relations with the new Tunisian government, the kingdom’s worries are nowhere even close to ending as new challenges continue to emerge.
When the revolt broke out in Syria, Saudi Arabia saw an opportunity to blunt Iranian influence by unseating the government of Bashar al-Assad. To achieve this end, it started arming rebel groups. However, to actually topple the Assad regime with military intervention, it was counting on the US. Much to the kingdom’s dismay, the US had to refrain from invading Syria due to severe opposition from Russia. Instead of undermining Iranian influence in the region, the kingdom ended up seeing it grow. To add to its worries, its relations with the US also took a historic dip in the process. Not only did the US not invade Syria, it also disapproved of the Saudi policy of arming the Syrian jihadis due to the threat such extremist groups are likely to pose in the future.
If that were not enough, it fell out with its tiny but madly rich neighbour. As is natural for a country with such huge wealth at its disposal, Qatar, now the world’s richest country by a margin, has been nurturing a desire to gather political power. First it unleashed Al Jazeera, which started criticising Arab governments with a candid openness — something these governments were not accustomed to. It then embarked on establishing its political influence, the highlight of which came in 2008 with Qatar successfully brokering a peace deal in Lebanon. With the arrival of the Arab Spring, Qatar adopted a policy of openly backing moderate Islamist groups, most of which are in reality different chapters of the Muslim Brotherhood. This infuriated three states — Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain — to the point that they severed their diplomatic ties with Qatar as these governments see the Brotherhood as the most potent ideological and political threat to monarchy. In simple words, Qatar has not only stood up to Saudi hegemony, it has positioned itself to actually trump it.
Iran, on the other hand, is poised to consolidate its position in the region. With a Shia majority government in Baghdad, a constant existential threat that the Iraq of Saddam’s days posed has been eliminated. Hezbollah, which it backs, has transformed into a sizeable military and political force in Lebanon. The Saudi backed Sunni monarchy in Shia majority Bahrain is also in danger of being ousted as demands for democracy grow. That will see a pro-Iranian Shia majority government in place in Bahrain too. And, most importantly, with open support from Russia, it has been able deliver an almost humiliating blow to both Saudi Arabia and the US in Syria. Moreover, under Hassan Rouhani, Iran is expected to soften its hardline foreign policy and reduce diplomatic aloofness. The early signs are all there as it has reached an interim deal on its nuclear programme with the world’s powers.
On a global level, Russia under Putin has already announced its re-arrival on the global political scene as a powerful player. It may not be possible for it to repeat what it has done to Ossetia and Crimea but it has definitely been able to make the point it wanted to, i.e., it cannot be written off as a world power. This will go a long way in checking the dangerously unopposed influence the US has been exercising in the whole of the world for the last two decades as the sole superpower. Iran’s ties with Russia put it in an advantageous position from where it can not only negotiate a much more honourable deal with the world but also establish itself as a regional power.
Against this backdrop, it makes perfect sense for Pakistan to safeguard its own interests by balancing its relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Improving its historically not-so-cordial relations with Iran in the post-revolution era is important for Pakistan for a multitude of other reasons too. The energy-starved country needs gas and would have to complete the pipeline from Iran to get it. Moreover, with hostile governments likely in New Dehli and Kabul, it cannot afford to have a third inimical neighbour. However, Pakistan will have to take extreme care not to cross the red line in its relations with Iran whereby it may earn the wrath of its long time benefactor, Saudi Arabia. Hence, the best option available for Pakistan is to play a role in defusing tension between the two archrivals and to help them reach a compromise. This is not only in the interests of Pakistan but also of Iran, Saudi Arabia and the region as a whole.
The writer is a freelance columnist based in Lahore. He can be contacted at [email protected]