Today is the day that Donald Trump’s tariff scheme should go into effect. Possibly they shall if the president is not using tariffs for negotiations or other tools. Or perhaps the president has different motives. And tomorrow could be the day of reckoning. Regardless, the threat and uncertainty of impending tariffs have shaken markets and […]
Peace or War In Ukraine
No matter what one may think about President Donald Trump, he certainly has moved to end the war in Ukraine in ways many thought would not succeed. And it may not work. But yesterday’s phone call with President Vladimir Putin seemed to start in motion a possible ceasefire or truce. Caution is needed. As in […]
The Great Paradox
Much of my 2025 will be devoted to co-authoring a book with my great English friend David Richards. The title is The Great Paradox: Strategic Thinking in an Unstrategic World. David’s more formal title is General The Lord Richards of Herstmonceux, a peerage conferred for his long and distinguished service culminating as Chief of the […]
The Trump Paradox
Donald Trump has promised to impose disruptive change on government. Most of his appointees have been chosen for that purpose. And Congress is not immune if Trump is able to persuade both Houses to grant him recess appointments. That would neuter the Senate and its advise and consent constitutionality authority. Whether or not all Trump’s […]
Trump II: Where Might He Be Headed?
For the past eight days, most reporting on the presidential election was why Donald Trump won and why Kamala Harris lost. Now, with the initial announcements of cabinet picks, speculation abounds over where the second Trump administration is headed. Of course, not until all major cabinet appointments including the Attorney General, Treasury, Defense, Secretary of […]
Trump wins!
Trump won a decisive presidential victory. Simply put, why? That question will dominate discussion and provoke answers for decades to come. After all, no prior presidential candidate in American history had such potentially disqualifying baggage as Trump. Could Americans re-elect someone who had been twice impeached as president; was a convicted felon; a sexual predator […]
Looming Electoral Vulnerabilities, We Ignore at Our Risk
At long last, election 2024 is upon us. Six days from now, November 5th, marks E-Day. But when the 47th president of the United States is formally determined may take weeks or months. In that context and as this column has noted, in the UK November 5th is Guy Fawkes Day when in 1605, a […]
A Long War President?
Writing in his newsletter Inflection Points, my good friend and close colleague Fred Kempe, President and CEO of the Atlantic Council, speculates that whoever Americans elect on November 5th may indeed become a wartime president. Referring to the world in November 1940 just a year before the attack on Pearl Harbor forced America to declare […]
Will Israel Win The War?
Israel’s preemptive and decapitation strikes against Hezbollah, so far, seem a masterful operation. The campaign was initiated by disabling cyber-attacks against pagers and walkie-talkies that disrupted communications among thousands of Hezbollah personnel. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) then killed many of Hezbollah’s top leadership including 64-four-year-old Hassan Nasrallah, who had headed the organisation since 1992 […]
Three Big, Unasked Questions
As the election of 2024 draws closer, here are three big issues that need to be put in a declaratory form and answered by the candidates: Truth; Debt; and Defense. But as the so-called political debate continues to descend to unprecedented levels of bad taste and ignorance, this prospect is less likely than one of […]