Tories, Labour and the big Budget battle lines on November 19, 2017Today’s speech from the shadow chancellor has drawn a neat red line between Labour and the Tories. John McDonnell has said tax increases for the wealthy and for businesses should be used to support extra spending in health, education and the police. “It’s a message from the front line of public services, the government’s got […]
Hammond’s new Budget headache on October 16, 2017Budget Day for the Chancellor just became a little more tricky. The announcement by the government’s official economic watchdog that it expects to downgrade productivity growth over the next five years is likely to mean lower tax revenues for the government. And lower tax revenues mean that reducing the deficit becomes harder. Low levels of […]
Gig economy workers should get minimum wage on July 10, 2017The former chairman of the Low Pay Commission has said that the minimum wage should be extended to gig economy workers. Lord Adair Turner argued that the proliferation of “low-wage jobs” needed to be tackled and that some companies were categorising workers as “self-employed” to avoid low-pay protections. The “gig economy” has become controversial after […]
Hammonds public sector pay challenge on July 10, 2017The Treasury jealously guards its role as keeper of the public purse. And far from the mood since the general election easing on the matter of “sound money”, the word among senior figures in the department is that now is the time “to hold our nerve”. Sources close to the chancellor point out that plans […]
Immigration the Brexit dividing line on June 19, 2017Three days after Theresa May called the general election, I interviewed the chancellor about what we could expect from any new Tory government. On tax the signal was clear. Philip Hammond was no fan of the triple tax lock David Cameron promised voters before the 2015 election – no increase in income tax, national insurance […]
Short term negatives, long term positives on May 13, 2017 The Bank of England moved into caution mode today. After two major upgrades to its growth forecasts since the referendum – in November and February – today saw a slight downward revision. But it is not time to race for the lifeboats. The Bank said business investment was stronger than expected and that growth […]
What does hard or soft Brexit mean? on October 3, 2016Like eggs and cheese, Britain’s departure from the European Union supposedly comes in both hard and soft versions. But – unlike household groceries – it is rather more difficult to define what “hard” and “soft” actually means when it comes to Brexit. Supporters of a “soft” Brexit imagine a future where the UK retains some […]
Brexit forecasts can be wrong, it doesn’t mean they are pointless on May 29, 2016When I asked Christine Lagarde about the fact that the International Monetary Fund had been wrong in the past about its forecasts for the British economy, she gave a disarming response. “Yes, on occasion we have been wrong,” the managing director said earlier this month. Forecasts are just that, after all – forecasts. But, she […]