The US President Trump is scheduled to visit India for the first time from 24 to 25 February 2020. During this short visit of 36 hours, both Trump and Modi are likely to focus more on optics, as the expected major trade deal is not being signed during the visit, and it is being said that both sides might ink a $2.6 billion deal for New Delhi to buy 24 Seahawk helicopters from the US. According to the Deccan Chronicle, dated 20 February 2020, on 19 February 2020, the US President Donald Trump, while commenting that the US had “not been treated very well by India as it has been blocking market access to his country, said that his country would sign a “big” trade deal with India, not during his visit but rather sometime “later”.
As commented by Raja Mohan in his article published in the Indian Express dated 20 February 2020, in Washington, Trump’s foreign policy in general and his engagement with India has been criticised as too transitional. In Delhi, Trump’s visit is being derided for the apparent lack of substance and the focus on atmospherics. Therefore, while primarily Modi and Trump will try to attain political mileage out of the visit, they will also avail this opportunity to discuss their respective positions on the strategic issues. The Trump administration is frustrated, that with respect to USA’s Indo-Pacific policy, India is reluctant to act as a front line state in the strategic competition between the US and China and India also insists on retaining its strategic partnership with Russia.
For getting political mileage out of the visit, as per the Deccan Chronicle dated 20 February 2020, the Modi government has arranged to give the US President a grand welcome when he lands in Ahmedabad on February 24, 2020. Modi has told Trump that he will be welcomed by thousands of people, when he will be accompanied by Modi at a major roadshow and in the Motera cricket stadium in Ahmedabad. In the event Modi and Trump will also address the gathering in the stadium.
This event, named NamasteTrump, would be like Howdy-Modi, which was organized by the Indian expatriates, now the US citizens, during a Modi’s visit to the US in September 2019 in Houston, where Trump and Modi addressed their gathering. While Modi is likely to draw some political mileage out of Trumps reception in Ahmedabad in view of his falling popularity because of his controversial actions in Jammu and Kashmir and anti Government protests in India against the enactment of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), the event will also add to President Trump’s image required for his reelection campaign. In the strategic realm, while Mr. Trump will try to address India’s reluctance in openly acting as a strategic partner in the USA’s Indo-Pacific policy, in the great powers’ competition between the US and China, Modi would emphasise on getting Trump’s support on his actions in Jammu and Kashmir taken on 5 August 2019, and he will also try to convince Trump for not signing a Pakistan facilitated peace deal with the Taliban, by ignoring India’s concerns.
On the issue of Indo-Pacific, whereas India will continue to deceive the US by giving statements relating to China as a major threat, it will remain reluctant to act as a front line state in the US-China competition. Although, India would continue to enhance trade and investment relations with the US and it will also continue to purchase high tech weapons and technology from the Trump administration, as Mr. Trump likes to earn the foreign exchange through exports and selling of US arms and technology. Regarding signing a peace deal with the Taliban, Trump will not budge on Modi’s insistence because he wants to withdraw the US troops from Afghanistan before the coming elections, as he had promised to the US people in the last elections. Therefore, there is no likelihood of any major change in both countries’ strategic policies.
While the scenario worries Pakistan about India getting modern weapons from the US, the US frustration about India’s sincerity in its Indo-Pacific policy gives hope to Pakistan that this will enhance opportunities for the improvement of Pakistan-US relations
While the scenario worries Pakistan about India getting modern weapons from the US, the US frustration about India’s sincerity in its Indo-Pacific policy gives hope to Pakistan that this will enhance opportunities for the improvement of Pakistan-US relations. Although the US policy makers would still like to strengthen India economically and militarily as they believe that a stronger India would still be useful to the US as a competing power to China, in view of Pakistan’s significance with respect to keeping peace in Afghanistan, Central Asia and the Middle East, the US policy makers would also like to build good strategic and military relations with Pakistan as well. Therefore, Pakistan needs to exploit this opportunity to its advantage.
The writer is a former Research Fellow of Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), Islamabad and Senior Research Fellow of Strategic Vision Institute (SVI), Islamabad