On one hand, the US military outposts and bases are being emptied or destroyed after Washington withdrew from Northeast Syria and left its Kurdish allies. Meanwhile, Russian forces are moving in to take over these empty bases. This clearly illustrates how Russia is filling in the gap left by the US. It will not be an exaggeration to say that Moscow has established itself as a more reliable partner than the US in the region. Czarist Russia had longstanding interests in the Middle East. Its successor, the USSR, rapidly emerged as a critical player in the region in its contest with the US after World War II.
But, after the end of the cold war and the subsequent disintegration of USSR, Moscow lost its influence and stature in the region. This downfall had always haunted Russian leadership, which always craved for a greater role in the Middle East.
The Syrian civil war provided Russia with a golden opportunity to enter the regional arena and proved to be a dominant player. Putin used this opportunity very well and exploited it to the maximum. Russia has now been established as a major regional player and seems to continue playing this role for a long time to come. Let’s have a look at factors, which would enable Russia to dominate the regional landscape for long.
Proven Military Might: The weaponry and equipment that Moscow has brought in Syrian theatre from the very beginning signalled a clear intent to stay for the long term. Russians brought in the best state-of-the-art defence system including S-400 surface-to-air missile (SAM) anti-aircraft/missile system. In addition to SAMs and airspace control, Russia has tactical ballistic and cruise missiles on top of deploying advanced anti-ship missiles. Kremlin even sent its only aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, on the Mediterranean to fly aircrafts off it even if there were difficulties. The broader point conveyed is that Moscow used all tools in its arsenal to project power and assert influence whenever needed, and would continue to do so.
Reliable Arms Supplier: Moscow has positioned itself as the arms supplier of choice for the region. Russia’s S-400 is in great demand. Turkey has already laid its hands on it while many countries including Saudi Arabia and Qatar seem to be interested. In addition to this, Moscow is selling arms worth billions of dollars to Algeria and Egypt. Russia is gradually increasing its share in the regional arms market as the US hardware becomes very expensive and comes with a long list of dos and don’ts. On the other hand, Russia provides a decent-quality product at a much cheaper price with no questions asked.3
Maintaining good relations with all sides has been the core of Russia’s Middle East strategy
Diplomatic Powerhouse: In the diplomatic realm, Moscow now clearly wields superior effectiveness; having developed contacts with all parties and a distinctive ability to mediate, balance and help shape, rather than trying in vain to impose outcomes. Maintaining good relations with all sides has been the core of Russia’s Middle East strategy. Unlike the US, which has always divided the region into allies and foes, Russia has taken a pragmatic approach that is paying good dividends. At this point, Russia alone can interact with many state and non-state actors in the Middle East. These include Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, the UAE and even Kurds. Even the traditionally American-oriented countries, like Israel, are now looking for a greater understanding with Moscow.
Reliable Ally: Russia has transformed the battlefield; saved its allies and established itself as a reliable partner, which can always be banked upon. Moscow presented itself as a reliable ally, which believed in maintaining the current status quo for traditional Middle Eastern leaders, who fear any change. Russia has proved itself as an all-weather friend, which won’t judge but just help.
Russia has used the same mix of military and diplomatic tools in the same creative way that had made the US dominant in the region for so many decades. Russia’s actions in the Middle East should be seen in the wider context of its global geopolitical rivalry with the US and its Western allies. The creation of a “multipolar world” in place of the US-dominated unipolar world order has long been a comprehensive Russian geopolitical goal.
Outside the countries of the former USSR, the Middle East is probably the region where Russia has been most successful in consolidating its influence at America’s expense. The US’s eagerness to disentangle itself from the regional conflicts creates more room for Russia to expand. Russia’s growing influence in the region has also been a result of the US’s ambiguous strategy and lack of foresight. It is a hard truth that by pursuing its clear-cut goals with limited means but determination, Russia has returned to the Middle East to play a major role. On the other hand, the US lacks a consensus about what its goals and interests are, let alone how to best secure them.
The writer is a columnist for the Middle East and Af-Pak region and the editor of the geopolitical news agency ViewsAround