Turkey has launched its operation Peace Spring in Northern Syria; aiming to uproot Kurdish forces. The US has already abandoned their Kurdish allies, which helped them finish the ISIS caliphate, and pulled out all American troops from Syria to facilitate the Turkish operation. Turkey has come very heavily on Kurdish forces by launching airstrikes, heavy artillery bombardment and ground incursion by Turkish troops and allied militias. The scale of the Turkish attack surprised many analysts tracking Syrian conflict. Turkey attacks covered area of 300 km length and 50 km depth in which almost all major cities and towns under Kurdish control are hit. Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), dominated by Kurdish YPG militia, responded to Turkey’s military action with artillery attacks and rockets fired into Turkish territory. Moreover, fierce clashes are taking place in Syrian border villages between advancing Turkish forces and Kurdish fighters. What consequences of this military confrontation Kurds and Turkey have to face, only time can tell. But one thing is certain that whatever is the outcome of this confrontation, there will be only one beneficiary under all circumstances and that will be Syrian President Bashar Al Assad. Let’s have a look at how President Assad will benefit under any situation.
First of all, the most important development is that the US is withdrawing all its troops from the Syrian soil. Literally, now the US will have no ground presence in Syria. This complete US pull-out has removed Russia, which is the main backer of the Syrian government and the only military equal from the contest to shape Syria’s future. Moreover, another important ally of Dr Assad, Iran, doesn’t have to worry about the US monitoring its activities and passing on critical information to Israel. Iran can now feel more confident to move its men and material from the Iraqi to the Lebanese border.
Assad can now pressurise Kurds to accept many conditions, they outrightly rejected before
The Kurds feared that they will lose the autonomy they gained from Damascus during Syria’s civil war, now in its ninth year, and could see Turkey seize much of the territory where the Kurdish population is concentrated. This danger could now prompt the Kurds to negotiate with Assad’s government for some form of protection. Weakened by Turkish attacks, Kurds won’t be able to negotiate from a position of strength and Assad can pressurise them to accept many conditions, which Kurds outrightly rejected before.
Another prominent possibility is that Assad forces, backed by Russia, could take advantage of the situation and advance from the south into the Kurdish region. As President Assad has vowed to retake every inch of territory from the Kurds and the remaining armed opposition in Syria’s northwest. This will force the Kurds to fight on two fronts at the same time something they are unlikely to survive. Ideally, this is the right time to launch any military campaign against Kurds.
Turkey has stated that one of its goals is to settle Syrian refugees living in Turkish territory in the areas liberated from Syrian Kurdish forces. As it’s a known fact that the millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey have become a liability for Erdogan, who is now thinking of forcing them back to Syria. If such resettlement takes place, it will lead to a permanent change of Syrian demographics which favours Syrian President Assad’s sectarian ambitions. It will change the ethnic composition of the Kurdish areas and the sectarian composition of many predominantly Sunni Arab towns. So, going forward in future no Kurdish separatists movement can take root in these areas as Kurds will be in minority there.
Syria’s northwest corner, including the Idlib region, is the last major chunk of territory still in the opposition hands after more than eight years of war. That is mainly because of Turkish support to these residual opposition groups. Turkey has several observation posts in Idlib province. Hence, the Syrian government is reluctant to launch a full-fledge ground incursion. But if Turkey gets entangled with Kurds, Turkey has to shift its attention from Idlib to campaign against Kurds. As even Kurds lose the territory to Turks, they can still harass them through the use of guerrilla tactics like hit-and-runs attacks, mines, roadside bombs or perhaps anti-tank missiles in their possession. As a result of this, Turks’ attention from Idlib will be diverted and this will directly help the Syrian government which is eager to launch ground incursion in this last rebel stronghold.
The next few weeks and months will determine whether Rojava will survive or not. But at this point, Damascus has all reasons to smile. As it’s very much clear that Dr Bashar Al Asaad will benefit from any possible outcome of this Turkish operation. In the Syrian conflict, President Assad always played his cards well and emerged as the victor. However, this time, it is different. He is winning without fighting or even putting any effort. His enemies are going to hand him victory.
The writer is a columnist for Middle-East and Af-Pak region and editor of the geo-political news agency ViewsAround