It is unclear if the Art of the deal will work, but US president’s incessant alacrity and appetite to take risks had mixed results in the past. Trump’s foreign policy malpractices and his recalcitrant posture towards international norms has debunked American position on the global spectrum and reduced the American unipolar dominance from slapstick to drollery.
Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has not only struck and impeded engagement policy and détente but paved way for subterfuge diplomatic norms. Iran Nuclear deal has been scrapped as a result of his campaign promises.
Ever since Trump has been elected to the oval office, the most powerful man has become a reality show star. The US president’s temptation to cater to the demands of its followers or twitterati, essentially overrides the required judgment to chart a complex and intricate course in harmony with the purposes of a lasting impact.
Iran nuclear deal was signed in 2015 by Trump’s predecessor Obama. The deal was clinched after a comprehensive nuclear agreement that was concluded between the Iran and P 5+1(USA, China, Russia, France, UK and Germany). The compromises struck by negotiators and International agencies to bridge the gap between the Iranian and US red lines left ambiguities that later became focal points of criticism and friction, prompting to calls that the JCPOA /Iran nuclear deal should be rejected by the US Congress to renegotiate an alternative and “better deal” with Iran.
However, Trump’s decision resuscitated Iranian nuclear threat and created uncertainty and mistrust amid the upcoming North Korean-US summit, by fostering volatility and uncertainty.
Iran, on the contrary, lambasted Trump’s decision as a “strategic mistake”. However, President Hassan Rouhani reiterated that the disputed nuclear deal can still survive beyond a post US withdrawal if the UK, France, Russia, China and Germany make up for Washington’s exit.
Albeit, the deal is over for US, the allies still have stakes. Unilateral abrogation of multilateral treaty by Washington prima facie, displays disdain for international treaty but also exhibits a disregard for the European concerns.
Trump administration’s threats accompanying warnings of the American penalties on the European companies doing business with Iran, exacerbating a transatlantic partnership to the brink of dissolution. The bullying attitude towards the European allies added insult to the injury when the US ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, bluntly admonished German firms to “immediately” wind down business operations in Iran. The nuclear diplomacy torpedoed not just the JCPO but the façade of transatlantic partnership.
Since the three-year-old Iran nuclear accord, it has become somewhat translucent that American and European interests have notably diverged. Although, US barely adhered to the deal, maintaining non-nuclear restrictions on Iran, the Europeans in contrast, revisited and embraced renewed commercial dealings with the Iran. The sentiments were expressed by the French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire who voiced the peevishness felt across Europe over Washington’s attitude. “It is unacceptable for the US to act like the world’s economic policeman.”
Even though the deal is over for US, it’s allies still have stakes in it
Diplomacy has failed at the hands of partisan rhetoric; however, Trump is embarking upon writing another nuclear deal-with North Korea. In the recent months, following incessant commotion and sabre-rattling, Trump has reckoned his policy toward North Korea as a success and acknowledges that his unusual combination of insults and crippling economic sanctions ostensibly appears to have brought Kim to the table. Yet American pressure is probably not the only factor driving North Korean leader Kim Jong to bargain, nor is there much reason to believe that Pyongyang is ready to completely destroy and dismantle its nuclear infrastructure. Trump’s ambiguous assumptions and chimerical expectations could doom the prospects for peacefully deescalating one nuclear standoff – and applying these misguided lessons to Iran could manufacture yet another.
Trump, since in the office continues to deprive American policy of its context and foresight, required on terms compatible with their historical character, and remains aloof to the idea that it will make it harder to convince North Korea that Washington will live up to any commitments brokered as part of an agreement to remove nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula.
Trump might be generating a crisis where there wasn’t one. According to the International Atomic and Energy Agency (IAEA) Iran limited its capacity to enrich uranium, and by going back on the US part of the bargain, Trump may be risking that. Trump’s action doesn’t automatically end the deal – Germany, France, China, Russia and the UK were also signatories of the deal and have said they would continue to adhere to the terms.
A perfidious trail has been an unpleasant character of the diplomatic disengagement, which calls for revisiting the order of the day. Despite the fact that IAEA issued a clean chit to the Iranian compliance to the nuclear deal, the credibility of the international agency was not only undermined but simultaneously eroded the capacity of International Order.
The breakdown of diplomacy will not necessarily push Iran into a nuclear breakout, but realignment may push Europeans to join the rising tide of multipolar world. The Chinese and Europeans have exorbitant economic and financial interests in Iran, and since the globetrotting leaders through shuttle diplomacy have been more eager to pursue geo-economic interests, US may face isolation on the international stage. Trump’s Maximalist mentality of using “fire and fury” to achieve absolute capitulation by the other party will witness concomitant disappointment.
The writer is freelance columnist/journalist. He is philosophically a neo-liberal and Aristotelian; Optimistic by choice and has pragmatic approach towards life. He holds BSc honors degree in Economics & Political science. He can be reached at [email protected]
Published in Daily Times, June 2nd 2018.