Shipping costs in the Black Sea surged on Monday after Ukrainian naval drones hit two tankers heading toward a Russian port, raising fears of more attacks and pushing war-risk premiums higher. The area, used heavily for transporting grain and oil, has already faced months of instability, but the latest strikes have intensified concerns across the maritime industry.
War-risk insurance for vessels calling at Ukrainian ports increased to 0.5% from last week’s 0.4%, reflecting underwriters’ growing concerns about targeted attacks. Likewise, insurance quotes for Russian Black Sea ports rose to between 0.65% and 0.8%, showing a clear shift in risk assessment as tensions continue to escalate. These changes add substantial costs to shipping companies already battling volatile conditions.
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Furthermore, Ukraine’s recent strikes appear to be part of a broader effort to restrict Russia’s oil revenue, influencing how insurers judge intent and capability in the conflict. Experts noted that underwriters now expect a wider range of possible attack locations, which has caused premiums for Russian port calls to rise more sharply. As a result, both sides of the trade are experiencing a more evenly distributed risk profile.
The tankers targeted in the latest incident were under Western sanctions and were empty while traveling to Novorossiysk, a key Russian oil terminal. These attacks — the first on non-military, non-Russian-flagged vessels in international waters — prompted warnings from Turkey, with its president declaring such actions unacceptable. This statement highlights regional concerns about the conflict spilling into commercial navigation routes.
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Despite growing tensions, analysts believe Russia is unlikely to strike vessels heading to Ukraine while they sail through the territorial waters of Turkey, Romania or Bulgaria, as doing so would effectively mean confronting NATO territory. However, maritime security experts reported that mysterious blasts have occurred on several tankers calling at Russian ports since late 2024, suggesting a pattern that could further unsettle global shipping routes.