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M Arham Malik

Taliban’s Promises: Deception or Strategy?

Published on: November 10, 2025 12:09 AM

November 10, 2025 by M Arham Malik

In diplomacy, honouring commitments is the bedrock of a nation’s credibility. When states fail to implement agreements and assurances, their standing in the international system erodes, and diplomatic isolation follows. Successful diplomacy requires alignment between words and deeds; promises must represent lasting trust, not temporary convenience. Afghanistan again stands before the world’s conscience with a troubling question: Should the international community continue to trust the Taliban’s promises? From the Doha accord to recent tripartite agreements, the Taliban government has repeatedly deviated from its pledges. Their actions increasingly alarm not only the region but global peace as well.

The 2020 Doha agreement between the Taliban and the United States was hailed as a major milestone. Under that deal, the Taliban made two core commitments: first, to seek a political solution through intra-Afghan negotiations; and second, to ensure that Afghan territory would not be used to threaten other countries. In exchange, the Taliban received international legitimacy, financial relief, and a softer diplomatic posture. But the withdrawal of foreign forces and the Taliban’s swift seizure of Kabul exposed the gulf between their promises and practice. Rather than facilitating inclusive intra-Afghan talks, the Taliban suppressed opposing forces, curtailed women’s education, and strangled social freedoms. The release of some 5,000 Taliban prisoners had raised hopes for a new era of peace; instead, many of the released returned to the battlefield. While the movement proclaimed a reformed “Taliban 2.0,” reality shows continuity of the same old extremism, sectarian narrowness, and ethnic majoritarian instincts. A fog of promises hangs over Afghanistan, but the substance of change remains invisible.

Monthly payments from the United States, tens of millions in aid, and millions more from UN agencies and humanitarian programs have reached Taliban hands. Yet a large share of these funds seems not to be spent on public welfare but diverted to bolster groups that perpetuate violence.

Afghanistan is a diverse nation, Pashtuns, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, Baloch and Nuristanis all form its fabric, yet the Taliban government appears overwhelmingly dominated by Pashtun interests. In a 49-member cabinet, representation of non-Pashtuns is negligible. Key ministries, provincial governorships and the shura are controlled by a narrow group. The Kandahar shura, the movement’s original power base, remains composed predominantly of Pashtun military commanders. This power structure suggests that under the guise of the “Islamic Emirate,” the Taliban are consolidating an ethnically skewed rule.

Equally worrying is the Taliban’s breach of the Doha pledge not to allow Afghan soil to be used as a safe haven by other terrorist organisations. The killing of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri by a U.S. drone strike in central Kabul in 2022, after the Taliban had already taken control, heightened suspicions. UN monitoring reports, the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), and various intelligence assessments have repeatedly warned that groups such as Al-Qaeda, ISIS-Khorasan, and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) enjoy significant freedom inside Afghanistan. Reports allege that the Taliban’s intelligence apparatus, the General Directorate of Intelligence (GDI), has not only provided shelter to TTP leaders but has allowed them freedom of movement, issued de facto permits for arms and granted immunity from arrest. Taken together, these indicators point to a troubling reality: elements of the Taliban administration appear to be protecting terrorist networks they regard as ideological brethren. The principal victim of the violence emanating from Afghan soil has been Pakistan. TTP fighters have repeatedly crossed the border to carry out attacks. In the first nine months of 2025, Pakistani forces reportedly killed 135 Afghan militants, while, in total, 267 Afghan nationals were recorded as killed in terrorist-related incidents, a stark sign of cross-border militancy and its consequences. Following major operations in North Waziristan and Zhob, Kabul requested the return of the bodies of perpetrators, a clear admission that the attackers had originated from Afghan territory.

Pakistan has repeatedly urged the Taliban to abandon support for groups such as the TTP and the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). Since 2021, Islamabad has engaged in dozens of diplomatic contacts, ministerial visits, joint committee meetings and issued formal protests, yet the Taliban’s stance has not meaningfully changed. In 2024, a tripartite agreement between Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates and the Taliban pledged that the Taliban would move TTP elements away from border regions and prevent incursions into Pakistan. The UAE even provided financial assistance for the purpose. But the Taliban’s actions appear to have been limited to temporarily relocating a few hundred individuals, without establishing robust monitoring mechanisms, providing lists, or giving guarantees. Those same militants have since reappeared along the frontier.

It is a tragic irony that the Taliban regime continues to receive inflows of money despite its violations. Monthly payments from the United States, tens of millions in aid, and millions more from UN agencies and humanitarian programs have reached Taliban hands. Yet a large share of these funds seems not to be spent on public welfare but diverted to bolster groups that perpetuate violence. Instead of opening up Afghanistan to the world, the Taliban have transformed it into a potential hub of transnational militancy. At this juncture, the international community must hold the Taliban accountable for unmet promises. Mere statements, resolutions, or aid packages are insufficient. If the Taliban persist in failing to honour their commitments, the United Nations and major powers must consider calibrated political, financial, and diplomatic penalties. The objective should be to incentivise adherence to international obligations while avoiding measures that compound the suffering of Afghanistan’s civilians.

But the Taliban problem is not confined within Afghanistan’s borders; it is a challenge for the entire region. Continued international complacency risks triggering a fresh wave of terrorism that could engulf neighbouring states. The world must be shown the mirror of the Taliban’s own promises so that the true nature of their “Islamic Emirate” is exposed, whether it is a vehicle for governance or a protective cover for extremist networks.

Diplomacy must recover its moral and practical bearings. Promises made in Doha, in Abu Dhabi or in bilateral corridors carry weight only as long as they are backed by verifiable action. The global community, led by the UN and regional actors, should press for credible monitoring, transparent lists and enforceable guarantees. They should also ensure that humanitarian assistance reaches the Afghan people directly and not those who exploit it for strategic ends.

In the final analysis, the choice is stark. The Taliban can either transform words into durable policies that protect all Afghans and prevent their territory from being a platform for violence, or they can continue to play a double game, enjoying international relief and recognition while permitting, or even facilitating, the operations of terrorist groups. If the latter continues, the consequences will extend well beyond Afghanistan’s borders. The time has come to demand accountability rather than accept hollow assurances.

The writer is a former diplomat and freelance columnist.

Filed Under: Op-Ed Tagged With: Deception or Strategy, promises, Taliban

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