World stocks mostly rose Monday before a key Federal Reserve policy meeting later in the week, with investors hoping for a less hawkish tilt in plans for interest rate hikes.
Frankfurt and London equities climbed, but Paris slipped on news of record high eurozone inflation and slowing economic growth. Investors were nevertheless soothed by reports that the Fed could take its foot off the accelerator in its push to rein in decades-high inflation. It is expected to announce a fourth successive 75 basis point hike on Wednesday, but it could hint that officials are open to dialling back the pace of increases.
The US slipped into the red on Monday morning, after Wall Street enjoyed strong gains before the weekend thanks to a rally in tech firms after strong earnings from Apple. “The Fed decision is high priority — and the likelihood of a less hawkish Fed is increasing, which could benefit riskier assets” like equities, said XTM Market analyst Walid Koudmani.
The US gathering comes as other central banks recently indicated they are willing to ease up, with Canada raising rates less than expected last week. The Bank of England is however expected to deliver another hefty rate hike on Thursday.
Concerns that rapidly rising borrowing costs will send economies into a recession have hammered markets globally this year. Yet a better-than-expected earnings season has provided recent support. More multinationals are due to report this week as the financial reporting season rolls on, including pharmaceutical giants Moderna and Pfizer, technology behemoth Sony, and car brands BMW, Toyota and Ferrari.
But investors remain on edge over red-hot inflation, as analysts warned a recession in the Eurozone appeared to be on its way. Economic growth in the bloc fell to 0.2 percent in the third quarter, as inflation hit another record high on the back of soaring energy prices, the EU’s statistics agency said Monday. “It is a matter of how deep the recession will be and not if there will be one,” Oxford Economics said in an analyst note.
Consumer prices jumped by a fresh record of 10.7 percent in October, stoked by an eye-watering 41.9 percent rise in energy costs, Eurostat said.
The news came after the European Central Bank warned last week that a recession was looming, as it announced another jumbo interest rate hike to try to curb inflation driven up by the fallout from energy producer Russia’s war on Ukraine. “Double-digit inflation and decade-high interest rates do not bode well for eurozone growth during the rest of this year and into 2023,” noted economist Benjamin Trevis at think-tank CEBR. Asia mainly advanced, although Hong Kong and Shanghai sank on concerns over the economic impact of Chinese Covid restrictions.
Beijing reported a contraction in factory activity Monday as sweeping pandemic restrictions paralysed major industrial cities.
That also weighed heavily on oil because China is a major global consumer. “Although these data points are weaker than expected, it should be no surprise given those broad-based Covid-related restrictions that remained in place during the party congress,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. “Negative news from the real estate sector is adding salt to the economic wounds.”