Heartfelt condolence to Russia on the sad demise of Mikhail Gorbachev, the last president of the Soviet Union before its dissolution, who died in Moscow on Tuesday evening at the age of 91 after a severe and prolonged illness. His rule is termed as tumultuous and associated with the terms of perestroika and glasnost – reform and openness. Rest in Peace Gorbachev.
Amid contrary statements of successes from both sides, the Russia-Ukraine war has entered its seventh month. In fact, Ukraine has lost many parts to Russia despite huge US military aid and NATO’s support for Ukraine. In a recent statement, Ukraine has claimed to break several defences of Moscow.
On the other hand, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed on Tuesday that Russian forces have taken out hundreds of Ukrainian troops and dozens of tanks and armoured military vehicles after repelling an ill-fated offensive in the south of the country. “The effective actions by the Russian forces destroyed 48 tanks, 46 infantry fighting vehicles, 37 other armoured combat vehicles, eight pickups with heavy machine guns and more than 1,200 Ukrainian servicemen in one day.”
One Russia is confronting all of the West at the moment like always and is blamed for all the unrest in Ukraine – a country that was peacefully co-existing with Russia and other states in the region about a decade back. Long story that what happened to Ukraine’s co-existence after the US influence increased in the country. What would be the future of Ukraine is the focused question in the West and the US.
Amid contrary statements of successes from both sides, the Russia-Ukraine war has entered its seventh month.
The US and the West are sure about the divide of Ukraine into two parts on the pattern of South and North Korea. With the Russian stronghold, the Eastern part will fall to them while the Western part will surely remain under the US and NATO’s influence. It should be.
On the 31st anniversary of Ukraine’s independence, the United States has reinforced its long-term commitment to the nation with $2.98 billion to train and equip the Ukrainian armed forces for their struggle against the Russian invasion. It is in addition to the aid the United States has committed more than $13.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since January 2021.
The European institution The Statista has concluded: “In absolute terms, the largest supporter as of August 3 – by a very large margin – was the United States, with a total of €44.5 billion made up of €25 billion in military aid, €9 billion humanitarian aid and €10 billion in financial aid.”
Maximilian Hess, a Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and a Political Risk consultant based in London, has mentioned: At the beginning of the war, Ukraine’s external debts stood at some $129bn. Since the beginning of the war, the United States has sent Ukraine significant amounts of financial aid and it is due to send a further $4.5bn later this month. But even that will only be enough to tide Kyiv over for a month. More loans and a debt standstill are, put bluntly, woefully insufficient to address the fundamental problem [of Ukraine].
Ukraine’s government – and its people – now stand on the verge of bankruptcy. The national currency, the hryvnia, was devalued by the central bank in July. Now $1 buys 37 hryvnias, up from 26.50 a year ago. The state’s key energy company, Naftgaz, has already fallen into default. The country’s sovereign debts are trading at a fraction of their face value, as low as 17 cents on the dollar.
Nowhere to go for Ukraine under such conflicts and economic conditions but to fall in the lap of the West and the US. Long back, I had written about the fate of Ukraine at the end of the war, not less than the economic slavery of the capitalist market like many other countries. Now, the notion of dividing Ukraine into two radically different states is being widely discussed.
The Russian sources are quoting the US journalist David Ignatius: President Joe Biden has started a hidden trade with Russia, realizing that there is no alternative to a diplomatic settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. If Washington’s plans are implemented, Ukraine will be doomed to division similar to South Korea and North Korea with the establishment of a fragile state border.
Dr Richard Connolly, a Lecturer in Political Economy at the University Birmingham’s Centre for Russian and East European Studies, has written in The Conversation: It is increasingly difficult to predict what the future holds for Ukraine. One scenario sees the country becoming divided along roughly ethnic lines, with an ethnic Ukrainian western state and a more Russia-oriented eastern state comprising today’s southern and eastern Ukraine. So what would the economies of these potential new states look like?
Can Ukraine be divided into two? Aljazeera has quoted the researcher Pavel Baev saying, Top military leaders must now carefully prepare Putin to accept a variety of different possible outcomes.
Divided or undivided Ukraine, the US and the West have to permanently sit there to watch their strategic, military and economic interests in the region with the containment of China and Russia blocking their strategic and economic exits to the world. To curtain Russia, severe sanctions have been imposed and their financial assets have been seized. On the other hand, President Putin seems to be deadly determined for global positioning. In the given scenario, the question is will Putin agree to a divided Ukraine?
The writer is a freelance journalist and broadcaster, and Director Devcom-Pakistan. He can be reached at [email protected] and tweets @EmmayeSyed