Finally, Syrian opposition agreed to hold a temporary two week truce to test the seriousness of the Syrian government’s commitment to Russian-US plan to end fighting. Last week, the US and the Russia both decided to make a deal possible to end the hostilities between the Syrian government and the fighting groups excluding the Islamic State (IS) and the al Nusra Front. The opposition’s decision came after Syrian President assured Russian President, a close ally of Syria about his willingness to respect the ceasefire. The agreement required the warring parties to sign the deal by 25 February and to stop fighting by Friday night. Russia and Syria pledge to continue ‘uncompromised fight’ against IS and al Nusra front and other groups mentioned by United Nations Security Council (UN SC).
A ceasefire was badly needed in Syria to provide aid to besieged people of Syria. It is noteworthy that different cities are besieged by different factions. The UN resolution listed 30 besieged areas in dire need of humanitarian aid and a UN report estimates that there are more than 486,700 people in these areas and hundreds of them have been died due to starvation. The humanitarian crisis is worsening day by day making it difficult for aid agencies to supply food and relief goods to the people. UN aid agencies did not have direct access to the areas under control of government or rebel forces, thus UN convoys had long been waiting and planning to air drop the food and aid.
This ceasefire is also significant because it would lead to holding of dialogue, a political process that has not been taken off. Though this is not the first effort to bring the warring parties to the negotiating table but various proposals were put forward by other states but they never reach to logical conclusion and remained inconclusive due to one reason or the other. Given the continuous stalemate in Syria, international community sought a political solution of the conflict. In this regard, the first step was taken at Geneva in 2012, the Geneva Communiqué called for establishment of transitional governing body by mutual consent of Syrian government as well as opposition forces with full executive powers. The second initiative, Geneva II talks also could not succeed as hardly two rounds of talks were held. These proposals were rejected either by Syrian government or the opposition parties who set preconditions for initiating the negotiation process.
Recently, US and Russia’s efforts for ceasefire have succeeded and one important reason for Assad government’s readiness for talks could have been the weakening position of the opposition due to Russian airstrikes against the opposition forces. These strikes have been started since November last year and have proved the determining factor in strengthening the Assad Regime.
Regional states though support the ceasefire agreement but have shown mixed reaction, expressing their concerns about the Syria’s future. Regional states may have their own reasons but Syrian people have been suffering from this conflict.
The Syrian Conflict, now in its fifth year, seemed to be unending due to conflicting preferences and policies pursued by neighbouring regional as well as extra-regional powers. It is a unique conflict that has domestic, regional and international dimensions. Starting from internal uprisings against the Syrian government, it turned into violent civil war that claimed around 90,000 lives by June 2013. The increased violence and heightening of conflict provided regional states an opportunity to meddle in Syrian internal affairs and support their favourite groups of the conflict for their own interests. Their involvement gave the conflict a sectarian dimension as well. The conflict that had started due to dissatisfaction of the Syrian people against their ruling elite, turned violent making Syria a place attractive for non-state actors such as IS and many other militant organisations with their own agendas. The presence of non-state actors and involvement of external powers have contributed in prolonging the conflict.
More than 250,000 people have been died during the past five years while eleven million have fled their homes and seeking refuge in other countries. It is estimated that each day about 5,000 refugees are fleeing Syria to neighbouring countries as 36 percent increase in the influx of refugees has been noted in recent days. Hundred of refugees have also moved to European states that ultimately have used diplomatic channels to bring into effect ceasefire. Now warring parties in Syria must realise the human cost of the conflict and should give peace a chance because people of Syria have been the ultimate sufferer of this conflict.
The writer works at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) and can be reached at [email protected]