No confidence. No competence. No government. This is the repetitious furore in the opposition camps whose shifting, shifty and stumbling narrative is self-defeating. Demanding resignation. Threatening a march. Screaming disaster. These are the echoes in the political chambers of the country. All part of democratic traditions. All part of opposition ambitions. All in the name of keeping the government accountable. All in an attempt to highlight corrupt practices. The problem is that each slogan has been busted. Nearly every head of opposition has a track record of corruption. The prime minister, whom they want to oust, has a track record of integrity. That is why it does not stick. Imagine a group of corrupt ex-leaders shouting for “democracy” by bringing in a no-confidence motion against an honest leader.
The other main themes are that the country has been mismanaged, the economy has been mishandled, and inflation has killed the poor man. They have very “nobly” declared that they are going to save the country. They have vowed that they will not let the people of Pakistan suffer anymore. They have claimed they will not let a “selected” prime minister continue. They demand the “restoration of democracy, the rule of constitution and the will of people to govern.” This all makes for a good case, but? The question remains that despite trying for over three years, they are still not confident and still have not been able to carry out an integrated, systematic movement that would actually become a pressure for a government on a thin majority margin. Reason being that almost all calls to action have been disproven:
1) From Election Rigging to a big NO to transparency-The opposition rejected the 2018 elections by saying that there was rigging in it. Their leaders said that they will prove that this was the most rigged election in history. They demanded recounts in many constituencies, which was availed with little change in the numbers. They also said that they will go to court and publish a White Paper with evidence. They also demanded a parliamentary committee be made that will investigate all their claims. They hardly pursued any case in court. To date, they have not published any white paper or presented any evidence in front of any committee. With nothing to back their claims, their stance in and outside the parliament has fizzled out. To top it all, they opposed the amendment of transparency and “show of hands” in senate elections. Thereafter, they were not able to beat about this bush again.
Imagine a group of corrupt ex-leaders shouting for “democracy” by bringing in a no-confidence motion against an honest leader.
2 From being selected to calling others “Selected”-Another slogan the opposition used was that the prime minister was a selected candidate of the army. The problem is that all these parties who have all of a sudden become anti-establishment have had a proven history of being establishment products. PMLN and PPP leaders were part of dictatorships. They have been in government many times and have openly admitted that all these elections were managed. Their next generation of leadership is “selected” by their parents to directly head and lead their parties. This lack of street power has for the last year made them dependent on JUIF’s leadership and capacity to develop large rallies. Their inability to draw large crowds has also made their claim of a long march on March 23 doubtful.
3 From Corona adversity to opportunity-Corona was a devastating reality across the globe. Lives tumbled and economies crashed. The world shut down. Opposition in Pakistan grabbed this opportunity to declare the government “incompetent and criminal.” They said that the PM was responsible for deaths and an FIR should be lodged against him. Lo and behold! Pakistan’s smart lockdown strategy has become a case study and example for the world. Pakistan managed coronavirus in a way that everyone from Bill Gates to World Bank to World Economic Forum has been in awe of this rare global feat. On this ground too, the opposition’s call to get rid of the government fell flat.
4 From Economic Incompetence to Performance-The opposition always knew that calling the government and PM corrupt will never have resonance. Thus, they decided to focus on developing a narrative that “what use is his integrity if he can’t run the economy.” They kept on quoting Pakistan’s negative growth rate in Corona Vs PMLN’s five per cent plus growth rate. For a while, it did make sense. Unfortunately, for them in 2021, the economy rebounded and posted unprecedented growths of 5.5 per cent exports soared, the industry flourished, profits multiplied, and tax revenues exceeded targets. For the opposition to continue hammering something that was unbacked by facts became difficult.
5 From Inflation to Price decrease-Then, came inflation. Not only did it come, but it also stayed and it spiked relentlessly. Oil price shot from 46$ to 96$ and more recently, to $130. The government, like all governments in the world, raised the price continuously. US and EU’s inflation rose to a 40-year-high and is still rising. The opposition understandably jumped on this issue. They screamed about how the petrol prices will hit Rs 200 per litre. This was surely going to get the masses moving. Again, the government instead of increasing petrol prices reduced them by Rs 10, electricity prices by Rs 5 and announced a price freeze on petroleum products. Now the opposition has reversed their demand of decreasing petrol prices to “the reduction causing more deficit leading to future inflation.” Their shouts have turned to defensive mumbling.
6 From Foreign Policy Pressure to Sovereignty-Perhaps, the most ridiculous claim the opposition is making is on the government creating foreign policy disaster. Pakistan’s relations with its neighbours and West were of subjugation in the last decade. Iran, Afghanistan and Bangladesh were not ready to talk to us. We ignored Central Asia and it ignored us. West only said, “do more.” It is in these three years that Iran and Afghanistan have been neutralized and Central Asia is being led by Pakistan on most political issues. Pakistan’s call to the West of “no more” is a stand badly needed to make Pakistan’s foreign policy independent. Yes, there will be some short-term repercussions but in the long run, it will help Pakistan achieve its mission of not being part of other countries’ agendas.
If the opposition has failed to draw public support, develop an anti-government narrative, dent the party popularity as surveyed by Gallup recently, why gun the PM in no-confidence? Why are they ok with another PM from PTI, but not Imran Khan? Why are they so person-specific that they are willing to align with Jahangir Tareen whom they declared ATM and Sugar mafia? The reason is that unlike in the past, Imran Khan is not going to spare their corruption. All of them have corruption cases worth millions/billions. The only way they survive is If Imran Khan does not survive. That is why there is open, blatant horse-trading going on.
History and the present circumstances show that no-confidence is also likely to fail. Strange, but understandable that when Pakistan’s economy is growing, inflation is being controlled, OIC (Organization of Islamic Countries) is following suit in Pakistan by holding its session, why would the opposition try to remove one man? A man, whose assets are not lying in the West, unlike most of our other leaders. A man, who has given three world-class cancer hospitals to the poorest of this country. A man, who has raised Pakistan’s status and self-esteem in the comity of nations. The answer is obvious. This man has to fall for them to rise. As all opposition parties bunch together for the fall of PM, remember the saying of La Michael James, “Nobody is taller than the last man standing.”
The writer is a columnist, consultant, coach and analyst. She can be reached at [email protected] and tweets @AndleebAbbas.