Afghanistan is a country standing on the legs of American dollars, without which it has a fragile existence. With the exit of the US/Allied forces, the international funding also stopped; pulling the rug from under the Afghan feet—especially the Taliban who had stepped in as the new political rulers. This stop includes humanitarian spending as well as freezing assets running into billions of dollars. The New York Federal Reserve put a freeze on Afghanistan’s Central Bank’s access to the dollar account, The IMF stopped Afghanistan from using the facility of Special Drawing Rights. Soon after monies by donors flowing into the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund, from where the government drew salaries for government employees, was stopped; deepening the crisis faced by Afghanistan.
There is hunger and poverty in Afghanistan in the wake of an economic crisis threatening to implode as more and more people will be looking to go to safer places with two square meals to eat. Most cannot afford this, and the threat of famine becomes more real with every passing day. Afghanistan has faced four decades of crises one after the other. The resilience of its people is weakened and the economy stands destroyed offering no options for the people to sustain themselves.
The cost of daily food items and medicines are increasing on a regular basis. This is coupled with a cash crisis. With people strapped for cash and unable to address their basic needs, how far can Afghanistan go? Not very far, as per a UN report, “Afghanistan could see near universal poverty by mid-2022, with 97% of Afghans impoverished.” [International Rescue Committee January 7, 2022]
Afghanistan has traditionally [since the US takeover] depended to the tune of 75 per cent on foreign funds for public spending. The promise was never delivered to make the Afghan infrastructures self-reliant and develop the economy.
IS-K claims that the Pakistan-Afghanistan region is a part of its “transnational caliphate.”
Against this backdrop, the emerging threat of the Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K) can create a deeper wedge in the ranks by exploiting the developing survival crisis to push Afghanistan into a civil war. ISK was formed at a time when TTP had splintered and was suffering from several internal disputes. This resulted in the defection of TTP members to ISK, including the entire TTP Orakzai chapter and part of its Bajaur chapter (according to the TTP itself). [Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud, Inqilab-i-Mehsud [Mehsuds Revolution] (Paktika, Afghanistan: Al-Shahab Publishers, 2017), p. 525.] IS-K sees the Afghan Taliban as its main rival. It focuses more on creating violence that is sectarian in nature. This directly opposes building on national interests. IS-K claims that the Pakistan-Afghanistan region is a part of its “transnational caliphate.”
Generically, for any civil war to start, it requires [a] existence of an already lingering conflict; [b] upper hand of division on grounds of association, may it be race, faith and so on, and [c] a move to sectarianism. In the case of Afghanistan, there exists a fourth critical factor—economic deprivation, looming famine and the inability of the masses to sustain themselves.
Poor governance by the Taliban has not helped. The havoc wrought upon the populace, both by the Taliban and IS-K amid the pre-exit of the US and NATO forces in the first half of 2021, one of the first steps the Taliban took upon gaining power was to take away the rights of women and young girls. This included areas of education and employment. Media has come under increasing threat. On July 6, the Afghan government announced it was unlawful to broadcast news “against the national interest.” The AGO [Attorney General’s Office] warns that based on Afghan laws, the spread of rumours, conspiracies unrealistic and partial news by media will impact national sovereignty and the national interests of the country and is considered a crime. [Tolo News 06 July 2021]
Afghanistan’s descent into war will lead to more Afghans fleeing to foreign shores. Pakistan will feel the heat of this growing situation and its subsequent spillover effect. Earlier, the ingress of refugees has led to a huge economic burden on Pakistan. Injecting sleepers is easy. With Pakistan already on the FATF grey list, this is not a welcome development. Pakistan will be forced to deal with this at different levels ie domestic, national and international levels. The unity of the Afghan Taliban with the Pakistan Taliban also cannot be ruled out.
“A reunified TTP has reinforced its capacity. The latest report of the UN’s sanctions monitoring team notes that “the return of splinter groups to the TTP fold has increased its strength”. The TTP’s links continue with the Afghan Taliban, which is acknowledged by Pakistan’s security officials. TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud surfaced recently to announce in a CNN interview that his militant group will continue its “war against Pakistan’s security forces” and it aims to “take control of the border regions and make them independent”. [The Print. 3 August 2021]
Pakistan needs a strategy to deal with this very probable accelerating situation at its doorstep.
The writer is a lawyer, academic, political analyst and a published author. She can be contacted at [email protected] and tweets @yasmeen_9.