The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has maintained a database on international arms transfers since the 1950s. SIPRI’s latest figures, which average data from 2012 to 2016, show that Pakistan was the 9th largest arms importer in the world over the period in question.
Interestingly, India was the biggest arms importer in this period. Weapons imported by it accounting for almost 13 percent of global arms imports. Saudi Arabia was second on the list, with a 9 percent share in global arms import.
China’s vision for Pakistan, to the extent that it can be gauged from the limited information available, is quite closely focused on the use of resources and the need to keep trade routes open
The database shows that India imports almost 70 percent of its arms from Russia, with smaller quantities coming from the United States, United Kingdom and Israel. Saudi Arabia depends primarily on the US and the UK for its arms imports — together these two countries supply 80 percent of its needs.
Pakistan, which previously was highly reliant on the US, has now shifted its focus towards China. Seventy percent of arms imported into Pakistan originate in China, compared to 16 percent coming from the US.
While China is Pakistan’s largest supplier of arms, Pakistan provides the single largest market to Chinese arms manufacturers. About 41 percent of arms exports from China come to Pakistan.
As per the database, the role of the US in South Asia has changed significantly. It hardly figures in India’s supplier data till 2011, but now it accounts for 14 percent of the country’s arms imports. Conversely, the US was a key supplier of arms to Pakistan, along with China, till 2011. It no longer occupies that position. In absolute terms, the US has shifted its arms exports from Pakistan to India. As the world’s largest arms exporters, the US would have few qualms about supplying arms to both sides of a conflict (as in India and Pakistan).
While being world’s second largest arms exporter, Russia remains more careful. Although its relations with Pakistan have improved dramatically in recent years, arms exported to Pakistan remain limited. Russia prefers to maintain its key supplier relationship with India.
The changing patterns in arms trade are particularly interesting in view of the Pentagon’s belief that China is gearing up to expand its military presence overseas, and may be considering setting up a base in Pakistan. This is highly speculative, given that China has so far shown scant interest in expanding its military presence abroad. It has one military base in Djibouti, in the horn of Africa, which is also home to the only full-fledged American military base in Africa. This base was set up only last year and is supposed to provide logistical support to Chinese maritime escort missions and peacekeeping forces. Nevertheless, this was a significant development, heralding China’s expansion of its military presence beyond its borders.
But what is the implication of this for Pakistan? On the face of it, the contention that Beijing may want to place a base in Pakistan does not mesh with findings of the recent reports on the Long Term Plan for China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). If anything, the plan showed that China was less interested in the development of Gwadar than is being projected in Pakistan. China’s vision for Pakistan, to the extent that can be gauged from the limited information available, is quite closely focused on the use of resources and the need to keep trade routes open. China appears to want Pakistan to farm for it; house industries that it wants to relocate; act as a market for its low cost manufactured goods; and, if needed for its western provinces, provide access to sea routes.
All of this is perfectly legitimate and there is nothing to indicate that Pakistan will not be given an opportunity to negotiate its side of the bargain, if it can do so. The Pentagon report does, however, highlight the need for more transparency in dealings with China, not least because the western powers are becoming increasingly jittery about China’s place in the world order, and are ready to view its allies with ever growing suspicion.
Pakistan needs to avoid being bracketed as a lackey of any regional power.
The writer is an economist and policy analyst based in Islamabad