Last month, leaders at the NATO summit declared China as a constant security threat that could undermine world order—a matter of serious concern.
“We recognise that China’s growing influence and international policies present both opportunities and challenges that we need to address together as an Alliance,” read NATO’s declaration. Similarly, G7 announced the Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative days before the NATO summit that would provide $40 trillion to the developing states by 2035, which flashback the Marshall Plan in our minds at the start of the Cold War in the late 1940s.
Washington and its western allies are quite concerned about China’s rapid military and economic growth, especially their expansion through economic initiatives in different parts of the world. The western concern is deepening since the launch of the Belt and Road initiative by Xi Jinping in 2013. By BRI, China has signed various rail, road, ports, and other infrastructure development projects with over a hundred countries. This would put various regions on the Chinese net, which seems a serious threat to the west. China’s economy was smaller than Italy four decades before. It is the second global economic power at the moment that bothers the west. This article examines how China could threaten western interests in different parts of the world.
Although the Chinese growing investments are not a direct military threat to NATO or the west it could hamper their influence in various regions. The Chinese investments in port facilities and telecommunication in Europe could weaken NATO’s diplomatic influence. China possesses ten per cent ownership of all European ports, which complicates the situation for those countering China. Moreover, Huawei’s close relationship with the Chinese Communist Party is a serious concern for the west. China is also rapidly expanding its strategic influence in Africa by investments and providing them low-interest loans with a loose schedule of return that has boosted the Chinese clout in Africa. By overtaking America, China is the largest foreign direct investor in Africa now. The question is why do substantial Chinese investments go to Africa?
After geopolitical tension with the US, China is diverting its agriculture imports to Africa
Africa is inhabited by a population of 1.3 billion with the age of 19.7 that would provide China with a low-cost labour force. By next year, China would become a deeply aged society and by 2050, the maiden age in China is expected to be 51. Moreover, by 2060, one-third of the Chinese citizens would have crossed 65. In addition to this, China is no longer a low-cost country vis-à-vis labour. Thus, Africa can not only provide low-cost but young labour as well.
Similarly, Africa has a 30,500 km coastline that provides vast trade opportunities with the outer world. After geopolitical tension with the US, China is diverting its agriculture imports to Africa and investing in agriculture technology in Africa. This would serve the Chinese purpose of trade and strategic goals. Likewise, Africa possesses a fast-growing consumer market that best suits Chinese interests. Chinese companies are exploring new areas of investment, applying their models and using technology in this emerging market.
Alike, Chinese military reach is expanding and getting closer to Euro-Atlantic, another serious concern for the western allies. The Russia-China joint military exercises in the Baltic and the Mediterranean Sea were a signal of close military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing. Besides China’s rise, the resurgence of Russia under President Putin is also a concern for the west. Moreover, China and Russia are investing in natural gas projects in the Arctic in addition to a transport corridor known as the “Polar Silk Road.” China is also developing modern nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers that could have serious implications for the western allies.
Hence, the concerns showed by the NATO leaders carry weight. Earlier, the Trump administration was putting considerable pressure on NATO to put China on its top agenda items. Though there is a convergence between the western allies and the US about China, they would still need a coherent strategy vis-à-vis China. The Biden administration has not been that aggressive when it comes to China. Biden wants to accumulate collaboration and competition, a more balanced approach that could challenge the Chinese threat quite slowly. Similarly, an aggressive strategy that could directly hinder the Chinese influence is not possible as China does not pose a classical security threat to the west and the US. Nonetheless, China becoming a long-term strategic challenge for the US and its allies would be a hard-to-deny reality in the coming days.
The author is Senior Research Associate at Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad and author of the forthcoming book “The Troubled Triangle: US-Pakistan Relations under the Taliban’s Shadow” (Routledge). He tweets @yousafzaiZafar5