The Topline Securities conducted a poll of key financial market players regarding their views on the upcoming Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), which is scheduled for May 28, 2021.
According to the polls, 78 participants took part in the latest poll, compared to 118 in the March poll which was conducted for the March 2021 MPS.
About 73% of the participants are expecting no change in the Policy Rate in the upcoming MPS compared to 82% in the previous poll.
13% of the participants expect an increase of 25bps in the Policy Rate, while 12% of the participants anticipate a cut of 25-50bps.
In total, 86% of the participants expect interest rates to eventually increase in either 2021 or 2022. 54% of the participants are expecting an increase in the policy rate during 2021, while 32% of the participants expect a rise in 2022.
The majority of the participants expect GDP growth to clock in between 2-3% during FY21. “We are also expecting no change in the Policy Rate in the May-2021 MPS, while we expect an increase in Policy Rate during 2H2021,” Syed Atif Zafar, Director Research and Chief Economist at Topline Securities Limited said.