Long time ago, French Prime Minister and statesman Georges Clemenceau had said: “War is too important to be left to the generals.” Clemenceau had led France during the First World War and in several other crises. There is great wisdom behind Clemenceau’s words. His statement could be a guiding principle for all states and nations but perhaps it is not applicable in Pakistan. The Pakistani military considers itself the only true custodian of Pakistan. Generals believe that no other institution can be more patriotic than the military. They sincerely think that they know what is in the best interest of Pakistan. Therefore they consider it their right and duty to determine the national interest and how Pakistan should act as a state.
From military’s perspective ‘national security’ is supreme – important than democracy and the will of the Pakistani people. This is a very rigid and orthodox view where the state becomes important than the people it is suppose to protect or serve. Pakistan’s diversity should have been its strength but in the past 69 years the opposite has happened. Consequently, a federal democratic country has turned into an elitist centralised security state that acts in secrecy. In past, few Pakistani generals thought they were superb strategists. Not long ago General Zia-ul-Haq and company tried to redraw world’s political map. Zia died but from Kashmir to Kabul and Kargil followers of General Zia-ul-Haq launched adventures without authority, mandate and capacity.
Pakistan has paid a very heavy price of its generals’ blunders. I wonder if an independent and powerful commission will ever investigate policies and actions of General Zia-ul-Haq, General Hameed Gul, General Mirza Aslam Baig, General Naseerullah Babar, General Musharraf and many others. The above named generals pushed Pakistan into the Afghan quagmire and now we are facing the consequences of their strategic games. Border clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan could be tip of an iceberg that if not avoided will shake Pakistan.
More than three million Afghan refugees are present on the Pakistani soil. These refugees are spread across Pakistan. Most are well settled here. They have businesses, properties and family bonds. They know the Pakistani system, its weaknesses and vulnerabilities. Pakistani generals wanted to control Afghanistan but it appears that Afghanistan can turn the tables by using refugees. Even Pakistan’s installed Taliban and mujahedeen who were groomed by Pakistan didn’t accept the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. They consider Pakhtunkhwa a part of Afghanistan. Pakistan can reject such claims. Pakistan is a stronger state with a professional military. It can use force against those who will violate or disrespect Pakistan’s sovereignty. It can teach hard lessons to Afghan forces but this will not end the problem.
The Afghan refugees in Pakistan could be Pakistan’s biggest challenge. There are unknown numbers of Afghan nationals who have taken up Pakistani citizenship. It will be a security nightmare if these people will turn against Pakistan. It will affect life in Pakistani towns and cities. Secondly, unchecked border between Pakistan and Afghanistan will cause huge security challenge in case of a conflict with Afghanistan. There are more than 200 points other than Torkham where Pak-Afghan border can be crossed. Pakistan’s rivals can use this opportunity to create instability in Pakistan. A large number of Pakistanis now work in Afghanistan. Even a bigger number of Pakistani nationals make their living by legal and illegal Pak-Afghan trade. They will be affected by a military conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan and will turn against the country who they will believe is responsible for harming their business/livelihood.
FATA or the tribal belt is another challenge because in the past 69 years, Pakistan has not introduced reforms in this region. There are genuine and perceived complaints against Pakistani authorities in FATA. A hostile Afghanistan can try to exploit grievances of the tribal people. In case of Pakistan-Afghan war the people of Afghanistan will also suffer as Afghanistan depends on Pakistan for most of its food and other supplies. After decades of war and destruction Afghanistan needs peace and stability. Few Afghans and their foreign sponsor may want to pressurise Pakistan by using old claims and Afghan refugees but in the long run their strategy will fail and will push Afghanistan into further chaos. There are other serious and long-term implications of Pak-Afghan hostility. It is time that Kabul and Islamabad rethink and build a relationship that serve millions of people in the two countries.
Pakistan and Afghanistan can form a joint commission with the mandate to propose a modern and comprehensive framework of Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship. The framework should cover political, economic, trade, cultural and all other aspects of this special relationship. The dream of a trade and energy corridor between South and Central Asia via Afghanistan can’t be materialised without proper international agreements between Pakistan and Afghanistan, keeping in view needs of the 21st century. On the top of the agenda should be formalization of the Pakistan-Afghanistan international border. The clearly marked international border should be professionally managed on the both sides. The two countries should agree on an immigration policy that facilitates millions of people of the both countries.
Ideally there should not be a visa regime between Afghanistan and Pakistan but perhaps that might not be possible at this stage. Therefore Kabul and Islamabad should agree on fast and easy immigration processes for traders, investors, workers, professionals, experts and students of Afghanistan and Pakistan. The commission should propose meaningful cooperation in the areas of defense, security, intelligence sharing, drug trafficking and other serious crimes and threats. The commission should also set the terms and conditions for transit trade in accordance with international conventions.
Landlocked Afghanistan depends on the Pakistani seaports for its imports but in future Afghanistan will be a transit country for Pakistan for the supply/import of energy and goods from Eurasia. Therefore Afghanistan and Pakistan have to formulate a policy on transit trade that will be beneficial for both sides and also fulfills international obligations. Mutual cooperation, not hostility is the way forward for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Trade and economy should determine the fate of Pakistan-Afghan bilateral relations, not ethnic prejudices, hatred and suspicions.