As per the Doha agreement, signed between the former Trump Administration and the Taliban, the US and NATO troops in Afghanistan are supposed to leave Afghanistan by 1 May 2021. But, the Biden administration plans to advance the date of withdrawal for some months as it wants a definite cease fire and formation of an interim government in Afghanistan. As per the New York Times, Secretary of State Antony Blinken seeks to jump-start stalled negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
In a letter to President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan requesting his “urgent leadership,” Mr. Blinken signaled that the Biden administration had lost faith in faltering negotiations between Mr. Ghani’s government and the Taliban. Mr. Blinken asked Mr. Ghani, to understand the urgency of his tone. This reflected American frustration with the Afghan president’s often intransigent stance in stalled peace talks. Blinken’s letter implies a power-sharing agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government.
Negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban began in September 2020 as part of a February 2020 agreement between the Taliban and the Trump administration. But the talks have faltered over one issue or the other, mainly because of delaying attitude of the Afghan government. Mr. Blinken has expressed concern that “the security situation will worsen and that the Taliban could make rapid territorial gains” following a U.S. withdrawal.
The proposals made by Blinken aim to help accelerate talks on a negotiated settlement, and a cease-fire. The proposals include the formation of an inclusive interim government in Afghanistan, including the Taliban, and each side to name seven members to the High Council. Similar arrangements were proposed for a commission to prepare a revised constitution and for a Joint Cease-fire Monitoring and Implementation Commission. Ultimately elections should be held as per the new constitution.
The US and Russia’s suggestions to also invite India for the Afghan peace talks is a new thing as previously, having no legitimate stakes in Afghanistan, India was excluded from the talks
The Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told NBC News on 15 March 2021, (Monday) that the Taliban would not support any other path to resolving the Afghan conflict other than that outlined in the Doha accord, the agreement it reached with Washington in February 2020 under the Trump administration.
The above evolving scenario has implications for the Afghan peace and Pakistan. Previously, Pakistan had done its best to persuade the Taliban for talks with the US authorities that had materialized in the form of the Doha agreement. As per the agreement, while an intra-Afghan dialogue was to be held between the Afghan government/other Afghani stake holders and the Taliban to form an interim government and prepare a new constitution, Taliban will not attack the foreign forces and all the US and the NATO troops were to be withdrawn from Afghanistan before 1 May 2021.
However, despite that the date for the withdrawal of the foreign forces from Afghanistan is nearing, hardly any progress has been made in the talks held between the Afghan government and the Taliban. This is because the Afghan government was reluctant to conduct meaningful dialogue with the Taliban to make an interim government with the Taliban, as the Afghan government waited for the US elections with a hope that Biden will win and his government will be sympathetic to them.
Now, while the Biden administration has written to the Afghan President to form the interim government, including the Taliban, it has also asked the UN to organize a conference in Turkey to convene foreign ministers and special envoys from Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, India and the U.S. to discuss a “unified approach” to supporting peace in Afghanistan. The US and Russia’s suggestions to also invite India for the Afghan peace talks is a new thing as previously, having no legitimate stakes in Afghanistan, India was excluded from the talks.
While it is important that Pakistan should continue to facilitate intra-Afghan dialogue and any talks between the aforementioned regional and extra regional countries for establishing an interim government in Afghanistan and making the Afghan peace process a success, it has to be vigilant about the Indian motives, as if India sits on the table, it will use its influence to play up with the Afghan politics to the detriment of Pakistani interests in Afghanistan.
If however India succeeds in sitting on the table for the talks for the Afghan peace, it would be wise for her to follow the advice of its eminent intellectuals like, M. K. Bahadrakumar, reflected in his article, titled “India, Pakistan on the Road to Peace” published by the Indian Punchline, dated 8 March 2021. Mr. Bahadrakumar writes, “A constructive Indian role in the Afghan transition facilitating the formation of an interim government in Kabul that includes Taliban can be tuned into a profound confidence-building measure vis-a-vis Pakistan, as Pakistan has vital security interests in having a friendly government in Kabul, which are no less compelling than, say, India’s concerns in having a friendly cooperative Nepal. Of course, such a first step cannot substitute for India-Pakistan bilateral dialogue”.
The writer adds, “The bottom line is that India needs to foster a sense of urgency, a new way of thinking that gives precedence to the resolution and not simply the management of conflict situations, to avoid disaster rather than merely dealing with its consequences, to be able to prioritize the national agenda of development that ought to have precedence over all other sideshows in India’s current history”.
The writer is the former Research Fellow of IPRI and Senior Research Fellow of SVI Islamabad.