Three powers – China, India, and Pakistan – hold the keys to the future of south Asia. As the West withdraws from Afghanistan and US influence in the region declines, this triangular strategic relationship will become more complicated unless China and India – the two major powers – can define the parameters of a new regional order. The announcement by Pakistan and India of strict observance of all agreements, understandings and cease firing along the Line of Control (LOC) is undoubtedly a welcome step. The de-escalation on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China provides a sense of relief to all rational minds in the South Asian region. In case of India and Pakistan, the protracted history of the conflict punctuated by fleeting moments of hope always imposes a caution on reading too much into the recent developments. If all three countries, Pakistan, China and India, can draw the correct lessons in humility, there is hope for regional politics to turn over a new leaf. The truth of this moment is that South Asia will not proceed further according to the so called Modi doctrine.
In international relations the intention, doctrine and capabilities can be subverted by a combination of certain unexpected happenings. So it is premature to conclude what all this will amount to creating environments of all-inclusive peace within the South Asian region in long term. In the case of India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi needs immense political capital to make bold foreign policy moves. Many of these, including the strike on Balakot, were milked for his domestic political consumption. They were also an attempt to signal a change in status quo. But two years later, a few things have become palpably clear to India. First, the belligerent use of foreign policy in domestic politics has unintended effects on India’s international standing. In 2019, the Indian official rhetoric was promising retaking Azad Kashmir and putting more military pressure on Pakistan. In contrast, the discourse on foreign policy since the Chinese pressure across the LAC has been one of marked sobriety scaling back all expectations of a superficial militarism.
For the long term momentum to be sustained, political establishments of both countries will have to think of what is a win-win political narrative that they can legitimately offer their citizens
The recent standoff between India and China has brought home some blunt realities for South Asia. It is unlikely that Indian moves with Pakistan are a pure result of some package deal with China. But there is no denying that the LAC stand-off between India and China had significantly released the pressure on Pakistan and has cut out all of India’s loose talk on cross-border adventurism. China may have not particularly been concerned about abrogation of Article 370, but it did care about casual signaling that India might want to alter the status quo on borders with Pakistan including Gilgit – Baltistan. India was definitely reminded that the LAC and LOC can be linked and that the zone around Kashmir was a trilateral and not a bilateral contest, and that India will need substantial resources to deal with China. The fact of the matter is that status quo clause has not been restored on the LAC between India and China, and heavy costs can be imposed on India.
But equally, there are humbling lessons for Pakistan as well. India now has enough weight in the prevalent international system that any attempt to internationalise Kashmir dispute is a non-starter. Second, even Modi’s critics will have to acknowledge that the revocation of Article 370 did not unleash the kinds of fissures and cycle of violence within the Valley that Pakistan might have been hoping to exploit. There are important questions about Indian democracy and the rights of Kashmiris. But Pakistan can hardly show a candle on these issues. Pakistan’s infrastructure of terrorism has been a net liability to Pakistan in international relations, and its vulnerability in FATF is a constant reminder of that fact.
But we are at a moment in global politics where so long as India’s actions are within international understandings, it will have free rein to work out whatever political arrangements it wishes. And there is the persistent question of whether Pakistan can ever attain its full economic potentials if it continues to remain thoroughly dependent on good offices of one or the other super power.
It seems that China is the ultimate victor in all this signaling, how it can carry on ratcheting up the pressure on India. However, the fact of the matter is that India has stood up with enough firmness to send the signal that it will not be a simple pushover for China. India’s economic development and measures may have been nothing but certainly a pin prick to China for the moment. China cannot wish away considerable Indian economic and military potentials.
Therefore, this moment can be a constructive one if everyone understands the one lesson of this conjuncture in world politics. There are diminishing returns to belligerence. Three things can derail this moment of de-escalation. The first one is: How much does the Indian deep state buy into this de-escalation? The second is that there is always the risk that some unconventional group will try to test the waters by precipitating an incident. Third, Indian intentions still remain relatively opaque and the deep currents of distrust that Modi regime generate will not be easy to overcome.
With Pakistan, India should seize the moment and build on the de-escalation. The pandemic offers an opportunity for greater economic cooperation. For the long term momentum to be sustained, political establishments of both countries will have to think of what is a win-win political narrative that they can legitimately offer their citizens. Nationalism is a perennial derailing ideological force in all three countries. The ability of regimes to spin nationalism to convert even defeats into victories should never be underestimated. The truth of this moment is that the world will not run according to a Modi doctrine, a Pakistani dogma or a Xi policy. The region will be better off with a humility that tries to align them, rather than an arrogance that revels in unilateral triumphalism. Finally, Pakistan needs to adjust its strategic priorities, in light of its growing inability to act as a modern, functioning state. Its deep-seated obsession with India needs to end if it wants to get back on its feet as a viable nation state and contribute to a stable regional order.
The writer is a retired Pakistan army officer