The Afghan peace puzzle has been stalled once again due to the Biden administration new Afghan policy regarding peace talk and withdrawal of troops. The US-Afghan agreement once again reached to an impasse on the peace negotiations. The day to day changing attitudes pushed the regional states to play an active role and hence come to forefront for the future of regional peace and stability. One such step is being taken by the Russian Administration by offering its assistance to Afghan Government for the peace process.
In addition, Russian proactive approach of gathering all the stakeholders regarding the stalled peace process that would not only include Afghan Government and Taliban but also members of Afghanistan High Council for National Reconciliation (HCNR), and representatives from U.S., China, and Pakistan, is an indication that the key regional players are interested in the successful conclusion of peace process.
The regional stability and security is depended on the peaceful settlement of the Afghan issue. All the SCO states are on the same page and consider it as a vital element too. One of the impetus of SCO states’ active assistance is post-foreign forces withdrawal rehabilitation of Afghanistan for better intra-regional connectivity. After decades long war, Afghanistan’s come back would not be easy without economic viability through regional trade connectivity & cooperation. Afghanistan at the cross-roads of three regions makes it geographically blessed and could be regional future transport hub for economic activities.
Developing the underdeveloped sectors of Afghanistan by engaging in high-quality regional connectivity projects for instance energy, trade, and infrastructure projects would also lessen the sense of insecurity which is quite visible in Afghan government’s approach. These developmental projects could be a key to enhance the capacity to achieve collective regional prosperity and strengthening the regional connectivity. Thus, a better regional image of SCO countries would eventually be projected.
Taliban’s reluctance over nationwide ceasefire is making the peace process a little dubious. The upcoming meetings in Russia and Istanbul seems to be as a future peace path setting regarding inclusive government in Afghanistan
Furthermore, for attaining the said outcomes of collaboration and cooperation, peace and stability in Afghanistan is vital. For that, one cannot overlook the efforts made by Pakistan as one of the key regional player. Pakistan’s stance on intra-Afghan peace process supports “an inclusive political settlement” and that is the key to bring all the stakeholders on board and eventually moving towards ceasefire.
In addition, Taliban’s growing aspiration of governing Afghanistan and being more powerful and influential makes them important player too, one cannot ignore their existence. The only viable option left with all the international decision makers is to give Taliban the due respect and through this can make them agree for less violence. Taliban and the leadership attitude has been changed over the years and being aspirant of the power, they evolved and adopted the contemporary decision making. Amity and reintegration of Taliban means bringing in the Taliban support system into those of the Afghan government, economic, and Afghan security institutions.
However, Taliban’s reluctance over nationwide ceasefire is making the peace process a little dubious. The upcoming meetings in Russia and Istanbul seems to be as a future peace path setting regarding inclusive government in Afghanistan.
Furthermore, the reservations of the neighbouring countries including Russia, China and Central Asian states regarding the theological crisis in the region coupled with radical ideology, terrorism and narcotics amid the delayed peace process is an important element of their concern. And to avoid that, the neighbouring states are in full support of Intra-Afghan Dialogue.
SCO states interest in the Afghanistan peace process is a worrisome factor for the Americans as well. Hence, the announcement made by Biden’s office regarding a residual force for intelligence gathering and counterterrorism tasks in Afghanistan is another side. Complete withdrawal of foreign forces is a condition in peace agreement signed between U.S. and Taliban. Intra-Afghan Dialogue is another condition of the peace agreement, but it can be spoiled due to weak central Afghan government stricken by ethnic, sectarian, and tribal variances; and other unseen players. Intra-Afghan Dialogue is not only unpredictable but also fragile. One wrong move by either Afghan Government or U.S. would be enough to puncture the already radicalized social fabric of Afghanistan.
Hence, the successful conclusion of the Intra-Afghan peace agreement is a big challenge for not only Afghan government and U.S. but also for the regional states. All the regional players are in favor of reintegration of Taliban in the society for a democratic state system. As, governance in Afghanistan after the intra-Afghan dialogue would be a support-driven process.
Sabah Aslam is international relations analyst. She is Founder and Executive Director of Islamabad Institute of Conflict Resolution (IICR). She has served as visiting lecturer at School of Politics and International Relations (SPIR), Quaid-i-Azam University, abd Department of Peace and Conflict Studies (PCS), NUML. She is EUVP Alumni.