Is the new Cold War between China and the United States turning hot in sizzling global geopolitics?
China, a rising power, has been instilling fear in the existing great power, the US. Their competition is transforming in confrontation. Inescapability of conflict between the two in current landscape of international politics is a natural debate. As number of prisms to view nature of their relationship exist as are thinking minds in academia and dramatic voices in media. Graham Allison, John Mearsheimer, Robert Gilpin, Kai He, Aaron Friedberg and the list goes on.
Today US steers international order. Biden Administration’s global re-engagement policy seeks to bandage the bruises to US global leadership suffered in Trumpian era. China and other regional blocks, such as EU, pro-western East Asian countries, US-aligned Middle Eastern, and Asian states like India are creeping up for influence in the world and international politics. From US perspective, the world should be as US makes whereas states like Russia and China, termed as ‘Revisionists’ or ‘Authoritarians’ from the US lens are short of global demeanour. Their geopolitical conduct, as per US, disturbs international order, in real sense disturbing US to lead World’s political landscape and balance of power as US designs – one of the goals of US national security policy.
Amongst countries that agitate hegemonic soul of US the most are Russia, Iran, North Korea and China. But the competition between the US and China draws parallel with the US and the Ex-USSR during the Cold War. Chinese president once stated that US was pushing the two states to new Cold War. Visibly they are the largest trade partners; their imports and exports are mutually dependent; they are interacting on every international forum and summits; respective industries are thriving on the land of other; diaspora of one impresses the borders of others; technological and industrial collaborations go in hand; and, so on. Importantly, no direct military skirmishes or standoff is in sight. China said that there was no Chinese intent to replace US in the current world order. In the US-China conflict, Thucydides Trap is a famous buzzword coined by Graham Allison. Can China and US escape this trap leading to War? Allison responds in ‘yes’. Chinese President Xi during his state visit to US in 2015 stated that there was nothing like Thucydides trap in today’s world of cooperation and connectivity unless they (US & China) get into one.
Chinese restraint and return of American diplomacy would certainly help the bombs and bullets between the two countries impotent
All states, big or small, amass power, and seek to limit power of a rival. Every rising state is threat to power. It is the balance of power between the US and China that determines the nature of relationship between the two and the probability of any conflict emerging. Though growing, but the power of China is latent. The military and geopolitical muscles of China are not expanding as speedily as US is imaging believing the increase of power of china rapid and gross enough to threaten US. Chinese aspirations are predominantly economic and it aims to grow in economic sphere, building latent power and geo-economic influence. Since all rising states not necessarily are tempted to change status-quo, China might seek marginal change in the status-quo of international order for regional influence but not for holistic change of global order. China is not pursuing any revolutionary ideology of Maoist-Leninist or Marxist of 50s or 60s. Rather, China is talking about shared future and connectivity. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Regional Economic Cooperation Partnership (RECP) reflect the same. Good news is that ‘security dilemma’ between the two countries is lesser pronounced and non-perpetual. It limits the clouds of conflict between the two within limits preventing conflict to spiral up into a major conflict.
Nuclear status of both the countries, post-cold war bipolar system in East Asia, US interest in the Asia and Asia-Pacific, Indo-China belligerence vis-à-vis Sino-Pak strategic partnership, China-Russia amitié, growing economic connectivity spanning Asia, Africa, Europe and Prussia revolving around China and the geographical factors are diverge and converge in good balance to keep the arms race and security dilemma mute. Domestic socio-ethnic and religious issues pinch China and Chinese shared prosperity vision prevent China to think so bigger now to shove off US to replace it. Thus, there would not be a biggest challenge posed by China to the US. And, given rationality by the Chinese leadership, such rational behavior would make China to play low profile and appear lesser threatening to the US to prevent any conflict like situation, as the relative capabilities of the US and China also favour the US, as of today.
Chinese capabilities, especially military and latent capability entailing economy and population can turn into real power. Since China is a rising power, in every domain, especially economy; this fact alone that it is ‘rising’ alone is enough to determine boiling nature of the US-China relationship. China’s rapid economic growth since its economic revolution in 1978, its growing mass and capacity, in tandem with its expanding military capability, is certainly threatening enough to implant fear in US. Relatively divergent positions of the US and China in Taiwan and South China Sea may intensify their relatively calmer security dilemma to prevent the other from acting against one’s strategic interests or influence in the regional alliances.
Chinese restraint and return of American diplomacy would certainly help the bombs and bullets between the two countries impotent. Rather, positive competition and positive sum-game between US and China would be maintained by the decencies and peace-oriented visions of Joe Biden and Xi Jinping.
Good news for the world…and regional alliances! Violence between the US and China is too distant, fortunately. Let China not increase US fears strong enough to break barriers of violent conflict. The new Cold War between China and US is thankfully too cold; global geopolitics is not sizzling enough to make Cold War hot.
The writer, an international affairs analyst, regularly contributes on national security, foreign policy, international diplomacy and maritime affairs. He tweets @tee_shahid and connects at teeshahid20 @gmail.com