Earlier this year, the Doha accord signed between US and Taliban in an effort to bid farewell to the 19-year old war, bounds Taliban to disassociate from Al-Qaeda on every forum, a condition the Taliban has committed to fulfill. More precisely, the agreement demands that the Afghani soil will not be used as a breeding ground for terrorists against US and its western allies.
In the last few years, attacks by Al-Qaeda on the western targets have significantly diminished. Many policy makers and practitioners hold that regardless of their commitment to US, Taliban are still very actively associated with Al-Qaeda.
But the question is, Are Taliban in touch with the version of Al-Qaeda that carried out deadly attacks in the west and also how much say does Al-Qaeda have in Taliban’s policy and decision making?!
Al-Qaeda while still holding some power, have in the recent decade reduced more to the ranks of insurgents that participates alongside the people against weaker governments e.g, Yemen than a hard-core terrorist organization. Afghani Taliban in Doha on the other hand seem to limit their influence only to Afghanistan.
Mr. Edmund Fitton brown, coordinator of UN’s Islamic state, Al-Qaeda and Taliban monitory team told BBC that he had noted some reports that Taliban required some foreign fighters for Afghanistan to register with them and adhere to a code of conduct forbidding attacks outside Afghanistan. He said it wasn’t yet clear whether the same conditions applied to Al-Qaeda.
Al-Qaeda leaders pledge allegiance to Taliban commanders and when asked how could Taliban carry crack-down on a group that pledges loyalty to its leaders, the Taliban official told BBC that they have not formally accepted the oath and the pledge of allegiance remains ‘invalid’ if Al-Qaeda disobeyed Taliban’s orders to refrain from plotting attacks abroad.
At present, Taliban have available-to-fight force of between 45000-80,000 people, contesting 60 percent of Afghan territory with full control over 21 districts. An additional force of a few hundred that Al-Qaeda has to offer wouldn’t make a significant difference anyway.
Al-Qaeda is more of a rugged liability than a durable partner. Taliban-Al Qaeda partnership has survived Bin-Laden’s death and two Emirs of Taliban. But that doesn’t necessarily indicate deeper personal relationship at the top level. The thread that has bound them has been more at a foundational level than an ideological one. The current relationship between the two resonates with the one in 1990’s when Taliban were in power and frustrated with Bin Laden’s blatant attacks shifted him to Kandahar to keep him under observation. In 1998, Mullah Omer, the Emir of Taliban, went as far as to promise chief of Saudi intelligence agency that the Taliban will not shelter Bin Laden after he had threatened the Saudi Royal family. However, after US air strikes on Al-Qaeda, they got Taliban’s support again. But circumstances have dramatically shifted ever since. Back then, both the parties had a common enemy; The United States. But now as the agreement states, after the US withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, they will not interfere with the internal affairs of the country.
But that doesn’t mean Taliban can or will disassociate from Al-Qaeda so easily. If Taliban cut ties with Al-Qaeda abruptly, it will have a domino effect. Young lot from the Taliban that operates in far off lands of Afghanistan and usually out of touch with the top leadership can come out of Taliban’s influence and further their support to Al-Qaeda that they share their beliefs with on foundational level. Many people within Taliban show resentment towards US-Taliban deal. Also, many of these members can also join Taliban’s rivals as ISKP as happened in the past.
Possibility of co-ordination between the two groups cannot be ruled out altogether. Under extra-ordinary circumstances, both the parties may collide under different framework. A former Taliban governor, Abdus Salam Hanafi, who left the group back in 2001 but remains in contact with the senior leadership alleges that Al-Qaeda trained Taliban for the talks. The group may not cut ties abruptly when it comes to Afghanistan but the possibility of Al-Qaeda being a ferocious threat to the west has decreased over the years.
Naila Mahsud is a Pakistani political and International relations researchers, with a focus on regional politics and security issues. Twitter: @MehsudNaila