Drone warfare

“Brutality and injustice made us raise our hands towards the sky for years; God didn’t respond us, but drones came to our rescue.”― M.F. Moonzajer.

Drone warfare is one of the most important international security developments of the twenty-first century. Armed drones are proliferating rapidly, and drone warfare is thus likely to become even more prevalent in coming years.

These have increasingly become part of warfare since the Pentagon deployed its Predator in Afghanistan following the 9/11 attacks. Missile-firing drones are now produced in many countries including Turkey, China and Israel, and have been used by various sides in battles most recently by Azerbaijan vs Armenia. Global drone market is to reach $ 47 billion by 2022, manufacturers of drones are increasingly focussing on making technological advancements to enhance the efficiency of drones. Such advancements and developments are anticipated to fuel growth in the global drone market during the forecast period.

For militaries, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) offer three clear benefits over manned systems: Access, persistence, and accuracy. Because there is no operator on board the UAV itself, it can enter areas where manned missions would be considered too dangerous (access) because crews on the ground can be rotated, the UAV can stay in theatre longer, thus increasing endurance (persistence) and consequently, opportunities for better intelligence gathering and analysis are enhanced, which should make for better targeting (accuracy). It is widely assumed that this combination of access-persistence-accuracy will not only save lives on the side deploying them, but also reduce collateral damage. Because these weapons seem to reduce risk to human life in useful ways, drones have become an increasingly attractive option for policy-makers and military commanders alike.

With countries as diverse as Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Russia and China also investing in their own military drones programmes, proliferation risks via the international arms market increase, as does the risk that ever more countries will use drones including for military purposes at home (for example, in counter-insurgency) and in neighbouring countries (for example, to target rebel camps). Use of drones on the territory and/or directly against a presumably hostile neighbour increases the risk of retaliation and further military escalation, although not necessarily to full-scale war.

Pakistan Army, Navy and Air Force use drone technology mostly for reconnaissance, it’s about time they make it primary mode of engagement in war zones on Afghanistan Border and LOC

In a matter of months, Nagorno-Karabakh has become perhaps the most powerful example of how small and relatively inexpensive attack drones can change the dimensions of conflicts once dominated by ground battles and traditional air power. It also highlighted the vulnerabilities of even sophisticated weapons systems, tanks, radars and surface-to-air missiles without specific drone defenses. And it has raised debate on whether the era of the traditional tank could be coming to an end. Azerbaijan used its drone fleet purchased from Israel and Turkey to stalk and destroy Armenia’s weapons systems in Nagorno-Karabakh.

It’s no secret to anyone closely watching since the latest fighting erupted on September 27. The president of Azerbaijan, which experts say has amassed a sizable and diverse fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles, bragged openly about the weapons in an interview earlier this week.“Thanks to the advanced Turkish drones owned by the Azerbaijan military, our casualties on the front have shrunk,” IlhamAliyev told a Turkish TV channel. “These drones show Turkey’s strength, and this also empowers us.”

For two countries with limited airpower capabilities, UAVs provide a cheap alternative to expand their strike potential and their intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. Another important aspect of drone warfare is psychological operations and propaganda: recording videos and photos of attacks of enemy. Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry, for example, has churned out a daily feed on Twitter and Telegram, with drone videos purporting to show missile attacks and kamikaze drone strikes on Armenian forces. The fear and confidence created by these videos worked both as a motivational and discouragement tool in hybrid war amongst these two nations.

China’s People’s Liberation Army is deploying increasingly sophisticated unmanned aerial vehicles and unmanned combat aerial vehicles. The recent successes of Turkish and Chinese drones have elevated Pakistan. There are signs of a deal between Turkey and Pakistan as experts have predicted that Bayraktar-TB and Anka-S could be a potential prospect for Pakistan.

It is reported that China has sold dozens of its high-end reconnaissance, strike and multi-role Wing Loong II UCAVs to Pakistan, these drones will be manufactured in Pakistan Aeronautical Complex as part of technology transfer pact.

On 7 September 2015, Pakistan became the ninth nation globally to develop and use an armed unmanned combat aerial vehicle (drone), the NESCOM Burraq. Pakistan first started exploring drone technology when it acquired Falco drones from Selex Galileo for approximately $40 million in 2008. Since then, Pakistan has been developing variants of the original Falco drone in the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) in collaboration with the Italian firm. The Burraq was developed based on the Falco’s technology. By March 2015, Pakistan was able to test-fire Burraq armed with an air-to-surface missile named Barq with pin-point precision. Burraq drones were used extensively to provide support to the Pakistan Army during Operation Zarb-e-Azb.

With India set to acquire highly sophisticated S-400 air defence systems from Russia and Pakistan potentially getting access to advanced Chinese or Turkish drones, the next battle between drones and air defence systems could be seen in the sub-continent and witness a clash of acquired technologies.

Pakistan Army, Navy and Air Force use drone technology mostly for reconnaissance, it’s about time they make it primary mode of engagement in war zones on Afghanistan Border and LOC. With drone technology they can easily keep an eye on the tough trains of Balochistan and Iran Border as well which is humanely gruelling.

The impact of drone war on civilians living in Afghanistan and Pakistan has been devastating, with many civilian casualties and the constant threat of attack from drones circling the skies for up to 17 hours at a time.  Despite the claims that drones are ‘precision weapons’, reports on the number of deaths from drone strikes in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia explain that between 201-213 children have been killed since 2001 and estimates of civilian casualties are between 2,985 and 4,533.

In addition to the death toll, the psychological impact of living under constant surveillance, never knowing when the next strike will come, is a serious consideration. In their Living Under Drones report, researchers at Stanford and New York University found that civilians in Pakistan were being “terrorized” by the drones.

Another implication of drones is that they have shifted significantly the cost calculations of warfare. Drones can be deployed quickly, for long periods of time, and to lethal effect at lower financial cost and risk to life for those using them, compared to piloted aircraft or ground forces projected over great distances. This makes it more likely that we will see more (covert) drone warfare, but less (declared) war.

However, drones are indiscriminate weapons of war that have been responsible for thousands of civilian deaths. Rather than expanding the drone arsenal, drones should be banned, just as landmines and cluster munitions were banned. Now is the time to stop the rise of drone warfare, before it is too late.