From a layperson on a tea stall in a village to an astute diplomat in Islamabad, everyone knows and understands a basic principle, ‘if you offer your back – everyone will ride’. For Pakistan, this would not be the only time when someone wants us back for a free joy ride. While oil-rich countries in the Middle East are reconciling constructively to deal with a sworn enemy, Islamabad has taken a firm stance to not allow anybody to take advantage of Pakistan’s weaknesses and economic vulnerability to coerce her into a position where it had to compromise on its humanitarian stance on Palestine. For Pakistan, Kashmir and Palestine are similar issues and Islamabad cannot afford a different stance for each. Thus Pakistan is doing what it can to avoid any compromise on principle stance which might have pushed the country into a conflagration which would have affected the country as a nation for decades to come. To relieve the pressure Pakistan has successfully signalled “change of camp” rather than erecting a camp of its own with Turkey, Iran, and Malaysia. To address the pressure on its economy, Pakistan is now once again focused on its half-complete projects in the region such as CPEC.
The economic corridor has bothered everyone in Washington’s camp. Gawadar has also been a “thorn in the flesh” for friendly Arabs who have their convincing economic fears and apprehensions about CPEC. Strategic papers drafted at Washington so far did much to scare both Pakistan and China. Beijing had a deep sensitivity to CPEC sabotaging elements such as East Turkistan Islamic Movement. The scenario of religious terrorists or ethnic Baloch separatists attempting to break the Chinese ‘necklace of pearls’ forecasted harm to CPEC and other Chinese investments in Pakistan. However, this could not deter Beijing, which carried out its own reality check and due diligence before investing in Pakistan. For Pakistan, there was none other than this most dangerous scenario that CPEC has set the ball rolling for Greater Baluchistan in the south and initiation of sectarian disturbances up north in Gilgit-Baltistan. Securing these two CPEC limbs became a priority for both Islamabad and Beijing. However, the worst-case scenarios regarding CPEC never materialized, but they remain an unfulfilled dream for those who wanted to see Islamabad entangled in an internal security turmoil failing to protect Chinese investment.
Pakistan must take China on-board, which because of its incredibly growing economy, the share of global developments and unprecedented spread of influence around the world, can put its weight to support Pakistan
Failing to pose hurdles to the corridor was not possible. They spun hence a lot of propaganda against CPEC. They constructed themes that CPEC was a Trojan horse and would enslave the country. For many, CPEC became a failure who predicted that it has already drowned between the gulf of mistrust between China and Pakistan. People expected that this gulf would probably widen each passing day because of terrorism. Beijing noted, calculated diplomatic advances made by Islamabad towards those in Washington’s camp with concern. Media joined the bandwagon about CPEC from unravelling stories of corruption and mismanagement in some projects to Chinese nationals’ wedding. Courts in Pakistan were summoning Chinese companies for clarifications. It was like a deliberately designed plan manifesting itself as a sponsored campaign against CPEC. Unfortunately, those advising the government in Pakistan also started to believe in such narratives.
The reality was different, but it was beyond the cursory view of armchair experts. For a few in favour of CPEC, it was simple to understand that CPEC was a regional test project as part of the Chinese BRI (Belt and Road initiative) which had not even started yet in Pakistan. Over optimistic planning with the desire for quick wins became the root cause of confusion about CPEC. The realization set in that CPEC was not just a road passage or a port development scheme but an environment enabled for long term Chinese OBOR initiative. Thereafter, Pakistan and China once again opened up with a Long-Term Plan (LTP) for CPEC. They planned the economic corridor in a way that by the end of the year 2030. CPEC road test will be completely stimulating economic growth in Central and South Asia. By this time, CPEC would transform the region into an international economic zone.
Owing to the recent developments in the Middle East and our region, Islamabad has fully realized that it cannot expect to improve its economy by mere banking on support from the countries in the Middle East. Islamabad repented its mood swings of putting CPEC on the backburner, which was readily affording Pakistan a chance to seize opportunities presented by China’s economic development and transformation.
While Pakistan is now deciding to choose the anti-Arab camp, Islamabad knows also that the current legal onslaught on the pretext of FATF compliance. Pakistan must adapt to an environment shaped by leveraging powers and judiciously contest against them. While disentangling feet from the FATF compliances, Pakistan must take on board the friendly members of FATF amongst the 36 members through aggressive diplomatic overtures. Pakistan cannot afford a blacklist at this junction in time. Pakistan must take China on-board, which because of its incredibly growing economy, the share of global developments and unprecedented spread of influence around the world, can put its weight to support Pakistan. China has invested strategically ensuring Chinese companies around the world. At this junction in time, every country in the world and particularly those in Asia now trade more openly with China while the United States feels its growth being outperformed. Pakistan must ensure to have unconditional support from China to thwart pressures from Washington and the Middle-East.
Pakistan has little to worry about if it partners with China to pursue its economic goals besides sharing the table with Turkey and Iran in regional projects. In this situation Pakistan will bedefinitely at the head table by getting a strategic prominence in the region.
Writer is a versatile analyst and speaker on contemporary issues