The US seems determined to implement its peace accord signed with the Taliban on 29 February 2020 at Doha, Qatar. As per the Council on Foreign Relations, USA, in the US-Taliban peace deal, the negotiators agreed to a temporary reduction in violence and said that a lasting cease-fire among the US, the Taliban, and Afghan forces will be part of intra-Afghan negotiations. The United States agreed to reduce its number of troops in Afghanistan from roughly 12,000 to 8,600 within 135 days. It was part of the deal that if the Taliban follows through on its commitments, all U.S. and other foreign troops will leave Afghanistan within fourteen months.
The Taliban agreed to start talks with the Afghan government by 10 March 2020. As part of the agreement, the Taliban guaranteed that Afghanistan will not be used by any of its members, other individuals, or terrorist groups to threaten the security of the United States and its allies. The United States and the Taliban agreed to the release of up to five thousand Taliban prisoners in exchange for up to one thousand Afghan security forces, as a prerequisite to the start of the intra Afghan dialogue between the Taliban and the Afghan government and other stakeholders in Afghanistan.
The above mentioned historic peace deal, its speedy implementation and an early start of the intra Afghan dialogue is being supported by all the neighbouring countries of Afghanistan, including Russia, CARs, China, Iran and Pakistan. India, being an extra-regional country, is the only state, which, in cooperation with the current Afghan government, is covertly trying to fail the implementation of this accord.
India knows that if the Taliban become the dominant player in the Afghan politics, its influence in Afghanistan will reduce to a minimum
India and the Afghan government are not happy with the US-Taliban peace deal, as the Taliban has emerged as the main stakeholder in Afghanistan, since the Afghan government representatives were not part of the deal, and India was also not invited to play a role in this deal, whereas Pakistan facilitated the deal by bringing the Taliban on the table. Hence, in the upcoming intra Afghan dialogue as well, the Taliban is expected to be the main stakeholders.
While Afghan government members know that as a consequence of the intra Afghan dialogue, they may lose power; India knows that if the Taliban become the dominant player in the Afghan politics, its influence in Afghanistan will reduce to a minimum, as it has been working against the Taliban in Afghanistan for the last many years. Therefore, both seem to be working to sabotage the intra Afghan dialogue.
Moreover, as Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan will improve substantially, India knows that it will not be able to use the Afghan soil to destabilize Pakistan, as it was doing for the last many years, as was commented by an ex-American Defense Secretary, Chuck Hagel, when he, during a discussion on Afghanistan, said, “India for some time has always used Afghanistan as a second front, and India has over the years financed problems for Pakistan on that side of the border.”
In view of the above situation, India and the Afghan government, seem to be sabotaging the US-Taliban deal by various means. The Afghan government is trying to delay the release of the Taliban prisoners, which is a prerequisite to the beginning of the intra Afghan dialogue. This is being done to frustrate the Taliban to start violence in Afghanistan, which can become a reason to delay/cancel the holding of intra Afghan dialogue. But, the Taliban are not coming into the Afghan government’s trap and they are holding with the peace accord.
Likewise, India appears to be orchestrating violence in Afghanistan by using the renegade IS elements there, for carrying out violent incidents in Afghanistan with a view to blaming the Taliban and Pakistan. This is also meant to mislead the Afghan government and the US to delay and ultimately cancel the holding of the intra Afghan dialogue. But the US is not coming into this trap, as President Trump wants peace in Afghanistan, as he has recently announced that before the US elections in November 2020, he would reduce the number of troops in Afghanistan up to 5000.
At the same time, India is busy in sponsoring terrorism in Pakistan for the last many years. In May 2016, Balochistan’s Home Minister Mir Sarfaraz Bugti had said that Pakistan’s security and intelligence agencies have arrested six NDS operatives involved in terrorist activities. In a latest move, there is news that the Indian RAW and Afghan NDS are busy uniting all Pakistani banned terrorist elements hiding in Afghanistan to use them to sponsor terrorist incidents in Pakistan to destabilize Balochistan and the construction of the CPEC.
Since the above discussed scenario indicates that the Indian and the Afghan governments will continue with their efforts to sabotage the Afghan peace process, it is necessary for the beginning, the sustenance and ultimate success of the intra Afghan dialogue, that the US, Russia, China, CARs, Iran, Pakistan and peace seeking stakeholders in Afghanistan, continue to play their positive role till the dialogue succeeds. Also, Pakistan’s security forces should remain vigilant and ready to defeat India sponsored terrorism.
The writer is senior research fellow of Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad