After much wrangling, President Ashraf Ghani’s announcement on 9th August that the Loy Jirga (Grand Assembly) has approved the release of remaining 400 Taliban prisoners has finally paved the way for initiation of intra-Afghan dialogue which remained stalled for over five months. President Ghani’s announcement could be a precursor towards a possible solution despite confronting strong headwinds. There are reports that Afghan government delegation is already in Doha to initiate dialogue with the Taliban.
But one thing is clear that without US’ consent the entire process would have been a non-starter as has been the case in the past. Therefore, for the success of the peace and stability in Afghanistan, the US’ engagement is not only crucial but also desirable even if some countries in the neighbourhood may have certain reservations. This is equally true of spoilers inside Afghanistan and their supporters in the neighbourhood.
After obtaining the consent of the Loy Jirga (Grand Assembly) for the release of remaining 400 Taliban prisoners President Ashraf Ghani has shown the way of political rapprochement even if criticized by his detractors, including Taliban. He has also registered his protest for being ignored when the US and Taliban signed the peace deal on 29th February this year, which the Taliban and Mr. Ghani’s opponents criticized as delaying tactics. Mr. Ghani’s announcement also vindicates the US’ crucial role to nudge the Afghan government and, through him, the Jirga participants not to hold back release of 400 Taliban prisoners and paralyze the whole dialogue process.
Even while Afghan government was squabbling with the Taliban on the piecemeal release of Taliban prisoners, Defense Secretary Mark Esper’s announcement that the “number of the US troops in Afghanistan would be reduced to below 5000 before the end of November”, down from a little over 12,000 at the time of the agreement’s signing in February must have given enough signals to all the quarters that the US was serious in withdrawing troops from Afghanistan. However, how effectively the US can use its influence with the two Afghan adversaries on the peace process including power sharing would be eagerly watched by the Afghan stakeholders and country’s neighbours.
Pakistan’s role would be crucial in the coming days and weeks to act as a balancer despite reservations from certain quarters. It was Pakistan which succeeded in convincing the US to change its mindset about the Taliban and hold a dialogue in order to make peace in the country. Concurrently, Taliban were convinced by Pakistan to sue for peace. Fortunately, both the US and Taliban have been adhering to their parts of the deal which is why no major violation by the two sides has been reported since 29th February this year. However, President Ghani’s objections on the release of 5000 prisoners, as agreed by the US and the Taliban, caused embarrassment to the Americans. Hence a flurry of high-level US officials’ visits to Kabul and ultimately finding a way out to the ongoing deadlock by convening the Loy Jirga.
Now the real business begins. On the political front, due representation of stakeholders in the country would be crucial, which may include all major ethnic (Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks) and religious (Sunni, Shia and Ismaelis) groups. It would be a challenge for the governmental team led by Dr. Abdullah-Abdullah and the Taliban. While Taliban may assert the “Islamic aspect” of governance with central authority which was in vogue when they were ruling most of the country before 9/11, the Abdullah-led Afghan delegation although comprise all major ethnic groups is still a divided house. Keeping all ethnic and religious groups on a single page would be a gigantic task.
A very significant issue receiving scant attention by all the stakeholders is that Afghanistan has become a narco-state with billions of dollars drug money lining the pockets of who-is-who in the country, including Taliban. How would warlords compromise on this lucrative business and shun the war economy would be a billion-dollar question. It would be interesting to see how the intra-Afghan dialogue tackles this critical issue.
The US now admits that it cannot do the nation building; it’s a job best left to the UN which has the experience and expertise in peace-building and rehabilitation of war victims
While agreement on release of remaining Taliban prisoners is a substantive step towards initiation of dialogue process, the path ahead is full of pitfalls, primarily because of the power play between the Afghan adversaries which is as old as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. It is just not a two-some rivalry between the Taliban and government loyalists, but within the government divisions are so sharp that it can derail the entire process on frivolous grounds. Secondly, there are systemic issues within the structure of governance. The constitution of the country is a cut-n-paste but rudimentary form of American system whereby the Woolasi Jirga (Lower House) is elected on non-party basis. The entire system becomes hostage to Woolasi Jirga members whenever there is a problem; the President becomes a hostage to the members blackmail. Thirdly, there are strong voices amongst the non-Pashtun ethnic groups to adopt a parliamentary system as the present presidential system ensures monopoly of the Pashtuns over the levers of power. Whether Taliban would accept the existing system of governance, including its constitution which they have rejected in the past or insist on their brand of governance which hinges on strict interpretation of Sharia laws, would become clear during the course of dialogue process.
The role of neighbours of Afghanistan would be equally crucial in the success or failure of Afghan peace process. Both, Mr. Ghani’s government and Taliban have been positioning themselves to win over support in the neighbourhood. Pakistan has somehow succeeded in forging relationship not only with Taliban but also with Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras to encourage all the stakeholders to stay engaged and find an amicable solution. However, for Pakistan, Indian role in sabotaging the Afghan peace process would remain a source of concern which has been clearly made known to the American interlocutors.
Significantly, with other neighbours of Afghanistan (China, Iran, Russia and Central Asian states), Taliban have forged working relationship and have also held out assurances that Afghan soil would not be allowed to be used against any country, especially Afghanistan’s neighbours. For the neighbours of Afghanistan, a gradual US withdrawal and installation of a consensus government would be an ideal solution although for the time being it’s a rare possibility.
Finally, role of the US and international community would contribute to peace and stability in the war-torn country which has seen unprecedented death and destruction during the past four decades. So far, the United Nations has been playing a second fiddle in the entire episode since 9/11 as the entire game was played by the United States. The US now admits that it cannot do the nation building; it’s a job best left to the UN which has the experience and expertise in peace-building and rehabilitation of war victims. However, for that to happen the US and other rich nations will have to come forward and make financial contributions. Given the Trump admiration’s aversion to multilateralism, its support to Afghanistan through the UN channel would be keenly watched by the observers.
*Writer is a former Ambassador of Pakistan to Iran and UAE. Currently, he is working as a Senior Research Fellow at IPRI