One wonders how India would be celebrating the first anniversary of its re-occupation of Jammu and Kashmir—a state it had forcibly grabbed from the Kashmiri people seven decades ago through deceit. On 5th August last year, India revoked Article 370 and 35-A of the Indian constitution, which allowed special status to the Jammu and Kashmir State, and divided the whole state into two regions of Union Territory (UT)—Jammu and Kashmir as one UT and Ladakh another. Ironically, the people of Occupied Jammu and Kashmir had no say whatsoever in the revocation of Articles 370 and 35-A. Even pro-India Kashmiri politicians were detained in order to coerce the entire state into submission. It reminded of similar exercise seven decades ago when Indian troops landed in Srinagar on the pretext of protecting the state from “invaders”. Again, while signing the Instrument of Accession, people of Jammu and Kashmir had no say when their masters were changed. It was done by a state which claims to be the largest democracy in the world.
The history of occupation elsewhere in the world is replete with struggles and war of independence. Independence, based on right to self-determination, is guaranteed under the UN Charter and unlikely to allow any usurpers to establish their writ on a land or its people against their will. Kashmiri peoples’ resistance to the Indian occupation during the past 73 years is a glaring manifestation that people do not want to be part of India. It also testifies the fact that Indian occupation has not succeeded in converting the Kashmiris into “loyal Indians” despite coercive and placatory tactics applied by the successive Indian governments.
Let us find out what India has gained or lost in the occupied state after the re-occupation of J&K. Just before revocation of Article 370 and 35-A last year, additional 100,000 Indian troops were sent to the occupied state thus raising the total number to 800,000. It’s the highest civilian-to-soldier ratio anywhere in the world whereby for 9 Kashmiris one Indian soldier is deployed. The foremost setback for Modi government has been the international media which despite severe restraints put up by the Indian officials succeeded in exposing worst kind of atrocities perpetrated against the hapless Kashmiris.
Secondly, the whole Kashmir dispute got internationalized much to the chagrin of Indian officials; not only the UN Security Council twice discussed the dispute in its informal sessions but various human rights organizations exposed Indian game plan. Their demands to send probing missions to the occupied state have been summarily dismissed by the Indian government. Kashmiri diaspora has been agitating in all major western capitals almost on daily basis causing sheer embarrassment for the Indian government and Indian diaspora.
Thirdly, the Indian action should have been celebrated had it been so popular or beneficial for the Kashmiri population. However, reality on ground is different; the state’s Muslim population faces worst kind of lockdown where over 8 million people are forced to live in Auschwitz-like conditions. The COVID-19 has further compounded the problems for the people while Indian authorities use the pandemic as a pretext to further coerce the people. Overall, 17639 people have been affected with coronavirus, out of which 13078 were recorded in Kashmir Valley, 3351 in Jammu Division and 1210 in Ladakh region.
The experience of past seven decades for Pakistani strategic thinkers, especially since 1989 Kashmiri uprising, should make them wise enough to tackle the Kashmir dispute in a pragmatic manner, based on historical facts related to freedom movements
Fourthly, since the lockdown during the past one year, 203 Kashmiris have been killed. According to Kashmir Media Service, between January—June 2020, 148 deaths were recorded including 5 custodial deaths; 433 Kashmiris were tortured, 2121 arrested, 877 houses destroyed by Indian security forces while 32 women were raped or molested. New torture tactics have been applied to silence the Kashmiri dissent; apart from pellet-terrorism to blind the agitators, now peoples’ homes are destroyed during encounters with the Kashmiri freedom fighters. Destruction of 877 houses by the Indian security forces between January-June this year is a testimony to this claim.
Modi government’s actions last year in IOJ&K are a continuation of coercive strategy followed by successive Indian governments. The purpose was to justify India’s illegal occupation through various administrative and legislative measures. However, the UN Security Council, in anticipation of such measures by India, made it clear that holding of elections by India in the occupied state would not mean exercise of right to self-determination or a declaration of Kashmiris support in its favour.
The UNSC Resolution 91 (1951), dated March 30, 1951, clearly states: that the “final disposition of the State of Jammu and Kashmir will be made in accordance with the will of the people expressed through the democratic method of a free and impartial plebiscite conducted under the auspices of the United Nations”. The same resolution further affirmed that the “convening of a Constituent Assembly as recommended by the General Council of the “All Jammu and Kashmir National Conference” and any action that Assembly might attempt to take to determine the future shape and affiliation of the entire State or any part thereof would not constitute a disposition of the State in accordance with the above principle”. Therefore, in light of UN Security Council’s above decision except for a UN-supervised plebiscite any action aimed at justifying Indian occupation would be illegal and unacceptable to Pakistan and Kashmiris.
Whatever actions Indian government under RSS dominated dispensation has taken will culminate into more tensions in the region. To think that Pakistan would succumb under Indian pressure would be a mistake, especially when odds are pitted against India. The question arises as to why India has adopted a jingoistic course when it knows full well that its actions would not coerce Pakistan or Kashmiris into submission. The Hindutva agenda followed by Modi government may have domestic audience in mind but creating tensions with Pakistan and bludgeoning Kashmiris into submission would only heighten tensions between the two nuclear powers with disastrous consequences.
Not only Pakistan but, no one is happy with India in the neighbourhood. There is clear anti-India wave in Bangladesh following the implementation of Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and National Register of Citizenship (NRC), which made over 1.9 million Bengalis stateless allegedly being Bangladeshis. Same is the case with Nepal and Bhutan which are looking towards China at the cost of Indian annoyance. China-India relations have received a jolt in the Ladakh region causing more tensions in the region and an added factor to renewal of Cold War between China and US in which India seems to be flexing muscles as a pawn. With the advent of Hindutva forces’ ascent into power, India has emerged as an epicenter of all tensions in the neighbourhood.
The experience of past seven decades for Pakistani strategic thinkers, especially since 1989 Kashmiri uprising, should make them wise enough to tackle the Kashmir dispute in a pragmatic manner, based on historical facts related to freedom movements. For Pakistan, the biggest strength it can draw in the current situation is the complete alienation of Kashmiris against the Indian rule which has further eroded with measures like revocation of article 370 and 35-A. Patience and perseverance is the name of the game; Taliban’s famous saying that “Americans may have watches but we have time” has proven right and could be borrowed for the Kashmiri struggle. Let the pragmatic Indians ponder over their choices while Pakistan may display patience.
The writer is a former Ambassador and Senior Research Fellow at IPRI