The Harvard Professor Graham T. Allison in one of his lectures an year ago alluded to an inevitability ( of course with a caveat ) of an armed clash between the Ruling Power the USA and The Rising Power China. His observation was based on his theory what he calls “The Thucydides Trap” after the name of the great Greek thinker ,philosopher and the father founder of History ( c,460-400 BC ) Thucydides he wrote first History book called “The History of the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and `Athenens’ 2500 years back. The Athenes as a strong City State was the Ruling Power and was challenged by Sparata, a Rising Power in ancient Greece. The Peloponnesian Wars resulted in total ruin of Athens and rise of Sparta as a leading Power in Greece. The theory was put to test over past 500 years by Harvard UNiversity, in which 16 conflicts between the Ruling Powers and The Rising Powers were observed during five centuries, and it came out that out of 16 cases of Thucydides Trap cases 12 resulted in wars ,which none of the protagonists won, and in majority of the conflicts the war was provoked by a third party.
Professor Allison argues that perhaps the meteoric rise of China as an Economic Global Power and its endeavours to catch up with USA in Technology and Military Power the country are actually caught in “The Thucydides Trap” the question can the two sides defy The Thucydides Trap and escape the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD ) which could result in a catastrophic Military Conflict , given the most devastating , land Air , Sea, Nuclear , Space , Cyber , and Electromagnetic array of weapons the two sides possess. The USA since World War ll, as a Leading Global Power has been waging wars all over the world , including Latin America , East Asia Middle East and West Asia. All the wars that the US Army has waged after the second World War have resulted at best as test grounds for new military weapons and at worst brought death, destruction and misery to Millions. While the Chinese President Mr XI Jiping has declared that China must have “Modern Army Which Can Fight and Win” but Chinese leadership has adopted a” Dialectical Security Philosophy” contrary to US” Technological Superiority/Monopoly Philosophy” The chinese believe that there is no such thing like “Absolute Security” since , if one side develops offensive weapons system the targeted adversary will ultimately be able develop its own way to defend , so they bid for time , and do not normally rush in matters of War , while the US approach is to overwhelm the adversary with Technically more sophisticated weapon systems. In case China and US conflict there is a rough parity which constrains the US to undertake any precipitous Military venture without risking a matching Chinese response.
Donald Trump with a political agenda of America First initiated trade war with China , slapping wide ranging tariffs on Chinese goods and services and restricting Chinese companies from high tech ventures , Huawei was barred from providing 5G infrastructure in the US and some other Western Countries followed suit including england Australia etc. However the Trade War between China and US degenerating into a Kinetic Conflict between the two Titans, will require really require irrational actors with suicidal instincts at the helm of affairs.
The US -China relations suffer from following Geo Strategic/ Geo-Military Fault Lines which if not properly handled Contain high risk of a limited or even an all out War which could engulf several Countries
Covid -19 apart from causing hundreds of thousands of deaths , and over 13 Triolins US economic losses world wide brought China and USA to a face off. Since the virus emerged in Wuhan China the Us president Called it a Chinese Virus , Australia a close US ally called for an international inquiry and possible rapprations by China due to loss of life economy to the world. China rebutted the allegations however a war of words ensued resulting in further muddying the water. The US also took a strong position on the recent security law for Hong Kong. The us has imposed sanctions on Chinese officials involved in the New security Law
However ,The US -China relations suffer from following Geo Strategic/ Geo-Military Fault Lines which if not properly handled Contain high risk of a limited or even an all out War which could engulf several Countries.
South China sea:
The South China Sea is considered Geo-Strategically and Geo Economically vital by US , China and SouthEast Asian Countries.? of world trade estimated at 3.4 Trillion US Dollars passes through South China sea. For China it has very high Geo -Strategic and Geo Economic priority since , out 5 Chinese Seaports 3 are on South China Sea also 80% of its oil comes through South China Sea. The recent surveys have treasure troves of Oil and Gas reserves estimated to be sufficient to meet Chinese energy needs for decades. The resurgence of the Chinese Nationalism Under President XI , as a Social galvanizing force as the Communist Ideology has been relegated to low priority, and replaced by “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics”. Driven by the newfound Chinese Nationalism , China has also invoked historical claims on the South China Sea by Claiming a large part of the South China Sea within the Territorial Waters of China. According to reports China has undertaken a large scale reclaiming effort and several artificial Islands have been developed , which have been converted into Military out posts hosting radars and even Missiles. The US Secretary of State Mr Mike Pompeo in Statement on 13th July said” China’s Maritime claims in the South China Sea are completely unlawful” He further accused China of” bullying Southeast Asian countries. The Chinese Embassy was quick to refute saying ‘China is firmly opposed to the US State department statement on the South China sea , which deliberately distorts facts, exaggerated the situation in the and attempted to sow discord between China and other litoral countries , the US accusation is completely unjustified the statement of the Chinese Embassy went on to add.
To be continued
The writer is former Ambassador of Pakistan to Vietnam