The 20 body bags of Indian soldiers who were killed in a ‘military brawl’ In Gawalan Valley in Ladakh came as slap to BJP supremo Prime Minister Narindara Modi and a wakeup call for the Indian nation who were in a slumber and complacency due to fancy slogans like “India shining” and “resurgent India” which actually translated into an arrogant India which could not care less about geography, strategy, and responsible behaviour. The illiterate electorate was fed on “hate and otherness” with a gloss of Hindutva, fake jogis and sadhus who are suppose to renounce the world and sit in monistories or roam in jungles in search of “truth” were foisted on seats of power to advance Hindutva. Such is the level of denial; one may call it deception that PM Modi on June 20 after an all parties conference convened to discuss India-China border clashes and Indian casualties, denied that there has been any intrusion across Indian border. As per media reports, he said: “Nobody has intruded into our border, neither anybody now, nor have our posts been captured”. Modi’s statement was in complete contrast to his foreign minister’s statement earlier that “the Chinese side sought to erect a structure in Gawan valley on our side of the LAC”.
BJP’s rise to power, under Narendra Modi once on the US list of persona non grata, was the culmination of destruction of secular India of Gandhi and Nehro. A narrative to reestablish Hindu Rashtra in India was built by suppressing minorities, renaming places, sufforization of state institutions, including army, judiciary, police, bureaucracy and media.
On the external front, Pakistan was turned into a “whipping boy” to demonstrate an assertive emerging preponderant regional power and aspiring global power. Modi indulged in ”bear hughes” with US President Donald Trump in a public rally and even crossed the diplomatic/political red lines by raising slogans for re-election of Trump in the US elections, symbolically demonstrating complete realignment of India from relatively non aligned status to a US ally.
India made the mistake of historical miscalculation of aligning with a waning power against a rising power
India-Israel diplomatic and security cooperation was upgraded to a higher level. A new fait accompli was created by revoking the status of India-held Kashmir by annulling articles 370 and 35A of the Indian constitution. The longest lockdown in modern history has been imposed on the residents of the Valley. The freedom fighters’ indomitable will to die for their freedom keeps haunting over 600,000 well-equipped albeit demotivated troops who steadfastly denied Indian claim of control over the valley and its people. India also committed strategic miscalculation in respect of Chinese reaction to the change of status of Kashmir and Ladakh. By threatening Chinese interests in Ladakh, India took this disastrous misstep based on a gross miscalculation about the resolve of China to protect its Strategic “One Belt One Road Initiative”, which is now enshrined in the Communist Party Manifesto. China sees OBOR as a project vital to projecting its global status as well as protecting its vital national economic and political interests in the region and beyond. The CPEC is the juggernaut of OBOR, and passes through Ladakh, the Valley of Galwan, the point where bloody armed conflict between border forces of India and China took place is eight kilometers from KKH. The initiation of OBOR is also believed to be a pet project of President Xi Jinping who sees it as his lasting legacy in China when the sun finally sets on his reign.
China allied with the US in its strategic realignment which was touted as Indo-Pacific theater of war, in which India is supposed to play a pivotal role and would be staged as a counterpoise to China, which is a rising power. India made the mistake of historical miscalculation of aligning with a waning power against a rising power. The historical parallel can be drawn with the Ottoman Empire, which in 1914 aligned with the waning power Germany against Russia which was supported by western powers France and Britain. The strategic miscalculation cost Ottomans dearly and finally resulted in destruction and disintegration of the Empire. India seems to be adopting the same ruinous route.
Japanese PM Shinzo Abe came up with the idea of “democratic security diamond (DSD)” in December 2012. This DSD called for the formation of an alliance to safeguard the maritime commons stretching from the Indian Ocean region to the Western Pacific with four of Asia’s most prominent maritime democracies – Australia, India, the US and Japan – forming the points of the diamond. The Japanese leader explicitly called on these states to join forces to oppose Chinese “coercion” and to defend peace, stability and freedom of navigation within the diamond. India signed a landmark agreement with Austria on June 4 during a first-ever virtual summit between PM Modi and his Australian counterpart Scot Morrison. India joining the overtly anti-China quard is a clear signal to China that India has taken a strategic decision to be part of the anti China alliance if you will, and that India is likely to threaten Chinese vital interests in Asia and beyond. The Indian government clearly acted against what their leader Mr Atal Bihari Wajpai said “one can change friends but not neighbours”.
History has its own logic which it holds with steely firmness. Will India learn from history or ignore it and wait for the inevitable verdict of history?
The writer is former Ambassador of Pakistan to Vietnam