Fear and panic have paralyzed the world. The global economy has literally been shut down and life itself has been put on hold. There is only one news that dominates all the media. However behind the scenes, major global powers seem to have already completed the transformation of the global financial, monetary, energy and trade systems. While some other changes are expected to be finished in coming months. Once the global state of emergency is over, humanity will enter a completely new world.
Ever since billions of people have been locked down, almost all wars have suddenly stopped. There is still sporadic shelling in the Donbad, Syria, and Yemen, but those conflicts seem to be put on hold as well as almost every other human activity. Humanity has been switched off and it remains to be seen when and how it will be switched on again.
In the meantime, the new world has been under construction. Some of its contours can already be seen. Since the lack of economic activity caused a global recession, medium and small business around the world will suffer the most. The vast majority of firms that had stop doing business during global state of emergency, will likely never be reopened. Major multinational corporations, on the other hand, will survive and are expected to even come out stronger.
Capitalism will likely be replaced by corporatism. In other words, the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer. For the poorer, the very existence will become questionable. Famine is already knocking on doors of many countries, especially those that do not have at least some form of sovereignty. Such countries will likely have to sell their natural resources in order to get loans from international banks.
In spite of the economic crisis, oil prices are expected to remain low. The Russia- Saudi Oil war can be interpreted as some sort of analgesic, which is painkiller that prevents the total collapse of the system. After all what humanity is experiencing is not a collapse, but a very controlled transformation of the system. At this point, the price of crude oil is low as there is no demand because the global economy has been shut down. However, in the foreseeable future, the oil prices can be high for those countries that do not have any oil resources, but are forced to import fossil fuels. Countries such as United States, the Russian Federation and other major oil producers will likely agree on a fixed price for their own markets. The rest of the world, however, will have to wait to see what a new petrodollar system will bring.
Capitalism will likely be replaced by corporatism. In other words, the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer. For the poorer, the very existence will become questionable. Famine is already knocking on doors of many countries, especially those that do not have at least some form of sovereignty. Such countries will likely have to sell their natural resources in order to get loans from international banks
According to Naomi Klein, the author of the book; The Shock Doctrine: The rise of disaster Capitalism in moments of crisis. People are willing to hand over a great deal of power to anyone who claims to have a magic cure. At this point, humanity is still far from a solution to the global crisis, although governments around the world have already promised to provide the so called helicopter money to their populations. Such a manoeuvre will unlikely resolve any crucial problems. Since hundreds of millions of people will lose their jobs and won’t be able to pay their bills and buy food, the governments help will be just drop in the ocean. That however, doesn’t mean that the system will collapse. Those that get paid from central budget will likely keep getting their wages, although they could be reduced. The rest will wait for the crisis to be over.
After the crisis is over and new system is established, there might be a ray of hope for those that used to new rules. Some analysts argue that Chinas model will be implemented globally. As Naomi Klein points out, No country offered more lucrative conditions than China, low taxes and tariffs, corruptible officials, and most of all a plentiful low- wage workforce that for many years, would be unwilling to risk demanding decent salaries.
Whether the new system will be similar to model of society or not it will certainly not be democratic one. Even though democracy will keep its forms, a new global system will be similar to a technocracy. It will be a post democracy and postindustrial society. And it will be certainly be more efficient society.
If history is any guide, a strategy that can be described as two steps forward, one step back was seen multiple times. That means that some of the current restrictive measures will be lifted but others will stay. Also some additional measures are yet to be implemented. After the process of transition is completed, a new monetary system will likely be established. Where the digital currencies will play a major role in the foreseeable future. Since the majority of the population got used to working from home during the global lockdown such a model will likely become a norm as they will prove to be more economical. The school system will also switch to online mode. Finally the new era will mean more control and more dependency on the system.
The current lockdown can be interpreted as a way of training for a new system and a sort of detoxification from old habits that dominates during the era of consumer society. Ever handshaking will be a thing of past. People will be discouraged to interact in traditional ways. There will be more machine contact. This system will last as long as there is energy on planet but once they are gone. The military power countries will create new rules.
The writer is a biotechnologist and a columnist