This outbreak is not going to go away soon and with it, our liberty to move freely in this world will go in the reverse direction. I have been thinking about it for a long time now and the article I read on technological review websites has endorsed it. We are not going back to normal anytime soon, in fact, there has to be “new normal”. We need to redesign our lives and by introducing big changes in our lives. I have been having a hard time convincing my two teenagers that this situation is not normal and these circumstances required us to change the way we have been living since the time we were born. vigilance, self-care, stay-safe, sanitation, and overall change are important words to be remembered at all times.
Countries are adopting different strategies to cope with the current situation. Some countries are adopting the strategy of “Containment and Mitigation”, some are adopting the strategy like “Mass/Herd Immunization”. The Containment and Mitigation strategy means to slow down the infection rate by closing or reducing social interaction and wait for the vaccine to be introduced. The Mass/Herd Immunization strategy means let the infection spread with its natural pace, as more than 80% of the people that have been infected till now had mild illness and they recovered with the added advantage of being immune from this virus (although not sure for how much time as viruses and other microorganisms would evolve and change their behavior with the passage of time). This strategy is based on the assumption that only 2 to 3 percentage cases are critical and this strategy further requires acceptability of the fact that there will be fatalities.
Similarly, the strategy of Containment and Mitigation is also based on the assumption that the containment can be made possible for a longer period of time, which in fact is near to impossible. Even if it would be made possible, it will be resource-intensive and will further result in an economic breakdown (with a profound effect on the overall social fabric of the society) and many people would even die because of just economic breakdown, especially in poor countries. Another reason for adopting this strategy is that there are not enough medical facilities available even in the most developed countries, let alone in the poor countries.
Although many pharmaceutical companies are currently working on the vaccine and some even have promising progress. But even if these companies would come up with the perfect vaccine in a few days from now, the availability of the vaccine will not be made possible within the next 12 to 18 months. Clinical trials, mass production and supply will not only require a vast amount of resources, it certainly will take time. Therefore, the key lies in having the balance of both strategies. We need to limit and change the way we socially interact with each other, by being vigilant and adopting a lifestyle that promotes self-care/stay-safe approach. We need to be very critical of our personal hygiene and must introduce organized sanitation activities in our lives.
The situation is especially alarming in societies like us, where people are too dependent on God’s will. In fact, we can take this as an opportunity to re-design our lifestyles as threats like these will come more often in the future as the situation on the climate change front will change with the passage of time. According to scientists, there are thousands of biological species frozen in the glaciers. Due to climate change, these glaciers are going to melt and with them, these ancient species (new for us though) of microorganisms (bacteria and viruses) are going to be introduced in the world. It will be near-impossible to contain these viruses and we do not have any cure or vaccine for them.
We need to create awareness by further advocating these messages, converting them to buzzwords for the changes in social behaviors and overall changes in our lifestyle. We have never experienced circumstances like this in our life before, therefore we are not realizing the severity, criticalness and gravity of the current situation. The easy-going lifestyle we have been practicing for about a century now is going to change as humanity is plunging into the age of uncertainty. Reasons for this uncertainty will not only be caused by the natural threats we are going to face in the future, but it will also trigger deterioration in economic and social systems. Even if there will not be an impact of any natural phenomenon, man-made interventions including climate change alone is going to affect the world we know for a long time now.
Rise in population alone will cause the whole plethora of problems and issues in the world, as the resources of the world are going in the inverse direction. Climate change is going to majorly affect agriculture due to unpredictable weather patterns, thus irregularities in the food chain will become common occurrences. More resources would be required to deal with the natural disasters triggered by climate change and as I mentioned earlier, resources are going in inverse proportion as compared to the needs that would be generated through these events. There are limited medical facilities in the world, these facilities designed only to take care of the needs generated in the world we knew for the last 100 years (I would call it the age of certainty).
The new normal will require more resources to be allocated equitably for emergency response, recovery, overall disaster risk reduction and even more for the medical facilities in general. The world can no longer afford the luxury of ignoring big economic gaps between different social classes. These resources will be of no use for the riches if there would be a social outburst due to the pandemic situation. These pandemic situations certainly cause social unrest, if contained for long periods of time. If not dealt properly, this situation would convert our fictional stories we usually enjoy on our screens, into reality.
The writer is a Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Expert He has more than 20 years of working with the development sector in international organizations based in Geneva and Bangkok. He can be reached at [email protected]