The feeble ray of optimism in the US-Iran relations faded when the devastating US rocket attack killed Qassem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC’s) Quds Force. Following his death, there were a deep rage and grief felt by all and sundry. After the murder of General Soleimani, the response of Iran was outrageous since its leaders vowed to take harsh revenge.
The US-Iran relation had previously suffered a blow when the US unilaterally torpedoed the JCPOA in May 2018. Following that event, the US and Iran have perpetually remained at loggerheads. The murder of Soleimani is the most consequential setback in the US-Iran episode.
The current debate encompasses the accounts of killing Soleimani and its ramifications on the globe.
Iran dominates the Iraqi government at its extinguished level. Iran’s influence on Iraq is not just ascendant, but diverse, extending into military, political, economic and cultural affairs. For Iran, Iraq is a key state in countering the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). It is Iraq that provides Iran easy access to Syria and the Mediterranean Sea. In Iraq, there are holy shrines of Imam Ali (A.S) and his son Imam Hussain (A.S)–the most revered personalities in the Shiite sect. Iran, with humungous leverage on Iraq, renders easy access of its people to the latter to visit these Holy Shrines. Every month, more than 40,000 Iranians visit holy shrines, like those in Najaf and Karbala. Iraq is also the best importing market for Iranian products. Therefore, Iraq is of much significance for Iran. Given the importance of Iraq for Iran, IRGC has played a vital role in enhancing the Iranian role in Iraq. IRGC not only influences Iraq but also controls the Iraqi government. The vast Iranian influence on Iraq is the courtesy of Soleimani. There was even a report that claimed Soleimani secretly ran Iraq. Following the ISIS attacks in Baghdad in 2014, it was he who directed the Quds force for the defence of the capital against ISIS. Under his leadership, the Quds Force devised several decisive techniques and strategies that have served Iran extremely well.
Soleimani played second fiddle to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the sphere of shaping Iran’s foreign policy for the Mideast states. He was the person who organised the foreign policy for Iran concerning Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza and Afghanistan. Soleimani was the best planner to implement Iran’s strategic objectives in Iraq and Syria to create a ground line of communication. In the Mideast, Iran’s role as a proxy actor is increasing while Soleimani was the channel of the Iranian proxy’s mantra. Such a crucial part played by him in Iraq and the Mideast was a constant challenge for the US’s interests. The US blamed Soleimani for killing thousands of Americans. The US President tweeted out, “He was, directly and indirectly, responsible for the death of scores of people.” Furthermore, the killing of Soleimani may pave the way for the next term’s presidential victory for Trump.
The Iranian commander’s death can prove to be the potential ticket for the decaying ISIS to entrench its roots in Iraq
The next question that emanates is, what are the implications of his murder?
The implications can be far-reaching. The conflict may result in another refugee crisis, the rise of the proxy-war in the region and the resurrection of ISIS. Soleimani’s killing has stroked the worry of war and economic turmoil in the world. Outrageous Iran, after his funeral procession, unfurled the red flag as a sign to avenge his death. To add fuel to the fire, Iran has exited the Nuclear Deal and now may step up its nuclear activity. Moreover, speculations are rife Iran could hit the US’s cybersecurity. An Iranian group hacked the US government-operated site in retaliation for the killing of Iran’s top general. Furthermore, Iran, being the backing force of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, Hezbollah and Houthi rebels can pose additional perils to the US’s camps in the West-Asia. A former US ambassador to Iraq, Douglas Silliman, said, “His death will be a very big loss for the pro-Iranian militias, and it further loosens the leadership and centralized control of the PMF [Popular Mobilization Forces].” As a result, violence in the region can escalate further. Combatants of the Popular Mobilization Forces, attached to the Iraqi Armed Forces, are preparing their weapons as they await orders to combat the US troops. Hassan Nasrallah (the leader of Hezbollah) declared a forceful warning to the US and Israel, “To continue on General Soleimani’s path, we will carry his flag on all battlefields and all fronts and we will step up the victories of the axis of resistance with the blessing of his pureblood.”
He also urged Iran’s allies to take action against the US for killing their top commander. Sharp condemnation of the assassinations also came from Hamas and the Damascus regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Soleimani’s death can prove to be the potential ticket for the decaying ISIS to entrench its roots in Iraq. Some experts believe that the remaining followers of the Islamic State in Iraq may see his death as a window of opportunity to strike. The killing has also raised economic concerns as the rates of crude oil have soared high after Iran has vowed retaliation. After his assassination, oil prices have risen to $70 a barrel.
The murder of Soleimani is indeed the most significant event that has taken place in the Mideast. His killing has stroked deep anguish and anger among the Iranians and his followers. It is likely to distort the peace situation of the region. The world cannot afford to have another conflict in the Mideast. If Iran remains firm on its stance of taking revenge, it will deteriorate the peace condition in the region, which may affect the geopolitics of the world!
The writer is an electrical engineer who is also a CSS aspirant